Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 20 pts · 29 played
DWLWL
1–2Full time
Eyüpspor
17th · 22 pts · 29 played
LLLLL
Our take
Fatih Karagümrük were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 6 days of rest, Eyüpspor 4.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük50%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor23%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor31%
Fatih Karagümrük50%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor23%
Fatih Karagümrük43%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor29%
Fatih Karagümrük51%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor23%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 20
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükEyüpspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
13
AttackIn forecast
9
25
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükEyüpspor
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
59%
Scored inContext
48%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.17
ShotsContext
10.07
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
31%
5.62
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
56%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.79
Shots allowedContext
13.69
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.76
3.04
BlocksContext
3.96
3.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
65%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
361
PassesContext
376
284
Accurate passesContext
305
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.17
FoulsContext
11.72
14.48
Fouls sufferedContext
15.21
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.66
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
8.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
30%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
62%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.44
BlocksContext
3.70
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
66%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
367
PassesContext
389
290
Accurate passesContext
315
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.70
FoulsContext
11.60
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
16.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 4.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 926 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
80S. Babicka
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
10D. Verde
70Serginho
23S. Larsson
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
16S. Yaşar
4Luccas Claro
2Calegari
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
55B. Gezek
28T. İlter
26Metehan Altunbaş
19U. Bozok
20M. Łęgowski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Eyüpspor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
1.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.43
Eyüpspor · Away
0.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-9
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 19 of 84 · 0.68 per game | 21 of 84 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins1 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025Eyüpspor1–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.66 | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 41% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 41% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 52% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 3.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.27 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 8.96 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 14/28 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.55 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 18/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 8/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 2.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 7.67 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.80 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 4.43
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+35%league 45%
Fouls25.9league 26.1
Penalties0.35league 0.28
Home wins30%league 40%
Fatih Karagümrük3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Feb 26H · Antalyaspor1–02
- D22 Nov 25A · Eyüpspor1–12
- W30 Aug 25A · Antalyaspor2–12
Eyüpspor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D22 Nov 25H · Fatih Karagümrük1–11
- W20 Oct 25H · Kasimpasa2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük29 games · scored 26 · conceded 51
3
5
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
15
61-75
9
7
76-90
Eyüpspor29 games · scored 20 · conceded 43
3
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
7
61-75
6
16
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
4
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
