Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 14 pts · 25 played
WLDLD
2–0Full time
Fenerbahce
2nd · 57 pts · 25 played
WWDDW
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 5.3 days of rest, Fenerbahce 5 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.3 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük20%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce56%
Fatih Karagümrük12%
Draw20%
Fenerbahce68%
Fatih Karagümrük19%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce56%
Fatih Karagümrük15%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce63%
Fatih Karagümrük21%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce54%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükFenerbahce
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
13
AttackIn forecast
75
25
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükFenerbahce
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.28
1.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
60%
Scored inContext
92%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
10.44
ShotsContext
16.72
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
31%
On target shareContext
36%
5.64
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
54%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.05
13.92
Shots allowedContext
9.72
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.13
BlocksContext
3.40
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
64%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
363
PassesContext
468
287
Accurate passesContext
402
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.99
13.40
FoulsContext
11.80
14.32
Fouls sufferedContext
13.84
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
57%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.11
BlocksContext
2.80
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
379
PassesContext
479
309
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.70
FoulsContext
9.70
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,508 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,508 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
3Igor Lichnovsky
47Ricardo Esgaio
72Baris Kalayci
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
70Serginho
23S. Larsson
21T. Çukur
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
14Y. Demir
18M. Müldür
5İ. Yüksek
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
9M. Aktürkoğlu
7Fred
26S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fenerbahce-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.58
Fenerbahce · Away
2.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-0
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | W 5–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 2–2 H | W 4–2 H |
| Points | 14 of 72 · 0.58 per game | 54 of 72 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws3 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Fenerbahce2–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 14 Apr 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–2Fenerbahce
- 26 Nov 2023Fenerbahce2–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 2.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.84 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 3.28 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 68% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 8% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.96 | 6.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.12 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 9.08 | 10.86 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 3.24 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 5.56 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 76% 19/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 8/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 11.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.20 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 4.44
Red cards0.06league 0.21
Cards 5+25%league 45%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.27
Home wins50%league 37%
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L27 Sep 25H · Trabzonspor3–44
Fenerbahce2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Jan 26A · Alanyaspor3–20
- W23 Aug 25H · Kocaelispor3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük25 games · scored 22 · conceded 46
2
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
4
7
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
13
61-75
8
6
76-90
Fenerbahce25 games · scored 57 · conceded 25
7
6
0-15
8
7
16-30
13
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
9
3
61-75
14
3
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
