Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 21 pts · 31 played
LWLLD
1–0Full time
Genclerbirligi
14th · 28 pts · 31 played
LLLLW
Our take
Fatih Karagümrük were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 6 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 7.2 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük49%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi24%
Fatih Karagümrük44%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi29%
Fatih Karagümrük49%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi24%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw28%
Genclerbirligi30%
Fatih Karagümrük50%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi24%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 21
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükGenclerbirligi
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
13
AttackIn forecast
13
25
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükGenclerbirligi
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.97
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
58%
Scored inContext
61%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
10.26
ShotsContext
10.06
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.46
31%
On target shareContext
31%
5.65
Shots in the boxContext
5.87
55%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.04
13.71
Shots allowedContext
14.35
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
3.07
BlocksContext
4.15
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
67%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
362
PassesContext
308
286
Accurate passesContext
241
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.23
FoulsContext
12.32
14.32
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.74
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
60%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
8.90
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
36%
On target shareContext
25%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.78
58%
Box shareContext
49%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
2.88
BlocksContext
3.60
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
70%
Save rateContext
80%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
374
PassesContext
320
299
Accurate passesContext
252
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.10
FoulsContext
12.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
5M. Kranevitter
8B. Özcan
80S. Babicka
72Baris Kalayci
88T. Ahmed
21T. Çukur
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
77A. Dursun
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
88F. Üzüm
8S. Onur
42Ousmane Diabate
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
20A. Traoré
22S. Koïta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
1.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.47
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.40points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-11
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.47
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H | W 4–3 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 90 · 0.70 per game | 25 of 90 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws1 Genclerbirligi wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 7 Dec 2025Genclerbirligi3–0Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 0.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.39 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 52% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 39% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 1.70 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.23 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 9.10 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 15/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 13/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 9/30 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.26 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 20/31 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 9/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 8.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.90 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 4.45
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+33%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.28
Home wins38%league 41%
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D22 Feb 26H · Samsunspor0–01
- L5 Oct 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–21
Genclerbirligi3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Dec 25A · Kasimpasa0–03
- L28 Nov 25A · Kocaelispor0–10
- W18 Oct 25A · Besiktas2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük31 games · scored 27 · conceded 53
3
5
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
15
61-75
9
7
76-90
Genclerbirligi31 games · scored 30 · conceded 44
4
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
13
31-45
5
7
46-60
5
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
