Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Fatih Karagümrük had 7 days of rest, Goztepe 6 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük39%
Draw27%
Goztepe33%
Fatih Karagümrük39%
Draw27%
Goztepe34%
Fatih Karagümrük39%
Draw27%
Goztepe34%
Fatih Karagümrük32%
Draw27%
Goztepe40%
Fatih Karagümrük39%
Draw27%
Goztepe34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Fatih Karagümrük
Goztepe
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
13
AttackIn forecast
39
25
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükGoztepe
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
—
Scored inContext
50%
—
Clean sheetsContext
100%
—
ShotsContext
14.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
—
On target shareContext
21%
—
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
—
Box shareContext
54%
—
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
—
Shots allowedContext
12.50
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
—
BlocksContext
5.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
—
Save rateContext
100%
—
PossessionIn forecast
42%
—
PassesContext
272
—
Accurate passesContext
195
—
Pass accuracyContext
72%
—
Team ratingContext
6.84
—
FoulsContext
19.00
—
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
—
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.70
ShotsContext
18.40
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
39%
On target shareContext
31%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
58%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.40
BlocksContext
3.56
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
64%
Save rateContext
57%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
371
PassesContext
315
295
Accurate passesContext
231
79%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.50
FoulsContext
16.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.40
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel328 km2,359 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Aug | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,359 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
29J. Balkovec
22Fatih Kurucuk
6A. Çankaya
17Ahmet Sivri
11D. Johnson
34A. Demirol
72Baris Kalayci
21T. Çukur
91A. Gray
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
23F. Bayır
15A. Cherni
30A. Dennis
6Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
19Emersonn
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Goztepe-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
No home games yet this season.
Goztepe · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 1 | 2 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 1 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 10.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 8.00 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 7.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.00 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.30 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.53
Red cards0.00league 0.40
Cards 5+25%league 33%
Fouls23.8league 25.9
Penalties0.25league 0.40
Home wins25%league 40%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 May 25H · Galatasaray0–23
- W4 May 25A · Adana Demirspor2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Goztepe2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
2
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
7
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
