Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
15th · 3 pts · 4 played
LLWL
0–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
16th · 2 pts · 3 played
DDL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Istanbul Basaksehir. Fatih Karagümrük had 4.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 4 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük39%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir35%
Fatih Karagümrük38%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir35%
Fatih Karagümrük38%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir35%
Fatih Karagümrük32%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir42%
Fatih Karagümrük39%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir34%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükIstanbul Basaksehir
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
13
AttackIn forecast
32
25
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükIstanbul Basaksehir
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
25%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.25
ShotsContext
11.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
35%
4.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
41%
Box shareContext
68%
4%
ConversionContext
6%
1.75
OffsidesContext
—
14.75
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.67
BlocksContext
4.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
64%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
402
PassesContext
396
327
Accurate passesContext
334
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.50
FoulsContext
13.00
14.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.92
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.30
ShotsContext
10.67
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
54%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.30
Shots allowedContext
14.44
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.67
BlocksContext
3.56
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
59%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
382
PassesContext
425
307
Accurate passesContext
357
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.30
FoulsContext
11.44
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
32Muhammed Kadioglu
6A. Çankaya
11D. Johnson
8B. Özcan
72Baris Kalayci
21T. Çukur
20T. Kalpakli
91A. Gray
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
15H. Güreler
36F. Ebosele
2B. Özdemir
7Y. Sarı
8O. Kemen
13Miguel Crespo
23D. Türüç
14E. Shomurodov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Fatih Karagümrük wins1 draws0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 20 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 20 Aug 2023Istanbul Basaksehir0–2Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 33% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 33% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 12.00 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 6.00 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.44 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.80league 4.46
Red cards0.00league 0.31
Cards 5+40%league 49%
Fouls23.8league 26.0
Penalties0.60league 0.28
Home wins60%league 41%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W3 May 25A · Hatayspor4–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük4 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir3 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
0-15
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
6
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
