Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fatih Karagümrük were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fatih Karagümrük had 13.8 days of rest, Kasimpasa 13.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days13.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa31%
Fatih Karagümrük43%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa31%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa31%
Fatih Karagümrük35%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa38%
Fatih Karagümrük43%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa30%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 1.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Fatih Karagümrük
Kasimpasa
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
13
AttackIn forecast
21
25
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükKasimpasa
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
33%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.33
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
19%
3.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
30%
Box shareContext
51%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
17.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.00
BlocksContext
2.33
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
345
PassesContext
381
279
Accurate passesContext
315
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.67
FoulsContext
18.67
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+1.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
52%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.30
15.10
Shots allowedContext
9.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.67
BlocksContext
1.88
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
60%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
363
PassesContext
405
289
Accurate passesContext
334
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.60
FoulsContext
15.30
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.40
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
6A. Çankaya
32Muhammed Kadioglu
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
29J. Balkovec
47Ricardo Esgaio
8B. Özcan
11D. Johnson
70Serginho
72Baris Kalayci
21T. Çukur
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
2C. Winck Neto
20N. Opoku
41A. Szalai
21G. Frimpong
16A. Baldursson
7M. Fall
10H. Hajradinović
6Cem Üstündag
12A. Ben Ouanes
77P. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Kasimpasa · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins1 draws1 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2024Kasimpasa1–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 1 Oct 2023Fatih Karagümrük2–3Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.67 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.34 | 5.67 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.30 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.40 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.50league 4.10
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 40%
Fouls18.5league 25.5
Penalties0.00league 0.33
Home wins50%league 40%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kasimpasa3 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
3
0-15
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
6
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
