Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 3 pts · 9 played
LLLLL
2–2Full time
Kayserispor
17th · 5 pts · 9 played
DLDLL
Our take
Fatih Karagümrük were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Fatih Karagümrük had 5 days of rest, Kayserispor 5.2 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor32%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor31%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor31%
Fatih Karagümrük34%
Draw27%
Kayserispor39%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor32%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 23
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükKayserispor
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
13
AttackIn forecast
16
25
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükKayserispor
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.22
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
44%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.33
ShotsContext
12.33
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
29%
On target shareContext
32%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
51%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.11
Shots allowedContext
13.11
6.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.11
3.75
BlocksContext
2.14
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
65%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
367
PassesContext
365
289
Accurate passesContext
292
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.50
Team ratingContext
6.60
13.78
FoulsContext
12.89
14.22
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
54%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.80
Shots allowedContext
15.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.90
3.89
BlocksContext
2.88
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.44
66%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
364
PassesContext
352
286
Accurate passesContext
278
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.64
13.60
FoulsContext
12.10
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
3E. Roco
6A. Çankaya
5M. Kranevitter
8B. Özcan
17Ahmet Sivri
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
19D. Fofana
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
3A. Burak
54A. Kocaman
4S. Denswil
28R. Civelek
15Y. Ait Bennasser
33F. Soyalp
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
20Carlos Mané
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kayserispor+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-5
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.20
Kayserispor · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | L 0–4 A |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Fatih Karagümrük wins1 draws0 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 May 2024Kayserispor2–2Fatih Karagümrük
- 10 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük4–1Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 2.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.89 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 2.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.89 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 10.38 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.89 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.00 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.30league 4.83
Red cards0.52league 0.26
Cards 5+65%league 56%
Fouls26.7league 26.5
Penalties0.35league 0.28
Home wins30%league 37%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Kayserispor4 with this referee
Record0-4-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Aug 25A · Kocaelispor1–12
- D5 Jan 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–14
- D5 Oct 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D2 Sep 23A · Antalyaspor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük9 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Kayserispor9 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
