Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 17 pts · 27 played
DLDWL
2–1Full time
Rizespor
11th · 30 pts · 26 played
DWWWL
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
Rizespor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 16.9 days of rest, Rizespor 21.8 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days16.9 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Fatih Karagümrük32%
Draw29%
Rizespor40%
Fatih Karagümrük34%
Draw27%
Rizespor39%
Fatih Karagümrük33%
Draw29%
Rizespor38%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Draw28%
Rizespor47%
Fatih Karagümrük32%
Draw29%
Rizespor40%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükRizespor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
13
AttackIn forecast
22
25
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükRizespor
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
59%
Scored inContext
73%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
10.19
ShotsContext
11.81
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
31%
On target shareContext
30%
5.59
Shots in the boxContext
6.58
55%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.27
14.04
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.20
BlocksContext
4.00
3.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
65%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
359
PassesContext
372
283
Accurate passesContext
303
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.30
FoulsContext
13.15
14.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.42
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
35%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
60%
Box shareContext
51%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.67
BlocksContext
4.20
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
64%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
358
PassesContext
341
283
Accurate passesContext
273
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.00
FoulsContext
11.10
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest16.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Mar | 21.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
80S. Babicka
8B. Özcan
6B. Elmaz
10D. Verde
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
50L. Augusto
11H. Dervişoğlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük-1.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Rizespor+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.46
Rizespor · Away
1.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 2–5 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 78 · 0.65 per game | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws2 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 3 Nov 2025Rizespor1–0Fatih Karagümrük
- 28 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük4–0Rizespor
- 1 Sep 2023Rizespor1–0Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.62 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 27% | |
| Games | 27 | 26 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 8.30 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 14/27 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 4.23 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 8/27 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.70 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.00 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.09league 4.42
Red cards0.45league 0.21
Cards 5+36%league 45%
Fouls27.5league 26.1
Penalties0.36league 0.27
Home wins45%league 39%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Rizespor3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 Jan 26A · Istanbul Basaksehir2–20
- W13 Dec 25H · Eyüpspor3–03
- D19 Aug 23H · Alanyaspor0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük27 games · scored 24 · conceded 47
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
14
61-75
8
6
76-90
Rizespor26 games · scored 32 · conceded 36
6
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
2
9
61-75
9
9
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
