Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
17th · 3 pts · 6 played
LWLLL
3–4Full time
Trabzonspor
5th · 11 pts · 6 played
WWDLD
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 16). Fatih Karagümrük had 6 days of rest, Trabzonspor 7 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor43%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor43%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor43%
Fatih Karagümrük24%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor51%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor43%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 7
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükTrabzonspor
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
13
AttackIn forecast
54
25
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükTrabzonspor
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
33%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.17
ShotsContext
12.50
2.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
28%
On target shareContext
24%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
47%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.83
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.80
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
63%
Save rateContext
90%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
391
PassesContext
380
313
Accurate passesContext
317
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.17
FoulsContext
11.67
15.17
Fouls sufferedContext
14.83
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.90
ShotsContext
12.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
33%
On target shareContext
29%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
53%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.11
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
57%
Save rateContext
79%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
376
PassesContext
429
298
Accurate passesContext
367
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.63
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.50
FoulsContext
12.60
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 1,807 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
27N. Ugrekhelidze
6A. Çankaya
47Ricardo Esgaio
14Marius Tresor Doh
11D. Johnson
37João Camacho
23S. Larsson
21T. Çukur
91A. Gray
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
77A. Boşluk
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
70K. Olaigbe
99F. da Silva
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Trabzonspor-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Trabzonspor · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins1 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 9 Mar 2024Trabzonspor5–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 29 Oct 2023Fatih Karagümrük0–0Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.33 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.33 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.83 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 9.80 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 4.50 | 4.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 9.44 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.90 | 4.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.55
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+14%league 49%
Fouls22.5league 26.4
Penalties0.00league 0.24
Home wins57%league 36%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
TrabzonsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük6 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
2
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Trabzonspor6 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
3
0-15
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
5
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
