FC Midtjylland
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Jul 30 · 18:00
MCH Arena, Herning
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,217 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
FC Midtjylland—%
Draw—%
Besiktas—%
Weather (Herning)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 103
Team strength
FC Midtjylland
Besiktas
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
37
AttackIn forecast
60
42
DefenceIn forecast
48
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC MidtjyllandBesiktas
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
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—
OffsidesContext
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—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.44
ShotsContext
16.56
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.78
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
61%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
11.11
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
2.78
BlocksContext
3.75
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
76%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
362
PassesContext
480
279
Accurate passesContext
415
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.93
15.22
FoulsContext
12.11
13.44
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Midtjylland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,433 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Besiktas
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,217 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Midtjylland |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 23 Jul | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 23 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,217 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,433 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Midtjylland
Confirmed XI
1E. Ólafsson(G)
21D. Castillo
22M. Bech
6M. Erlić
5R. Kristensen
20V. Byskov
19P. Bravo
8P. Billing
7F. Gluda Djú
10G. Cho
11D. Osorio
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
35Tiago Djaló
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
29I. Fakili
10O. Kökçü
15Junior Olaitan
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Midtjylland
Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
FC Midtjylland · Home
No home games yet this season.
Besiktas · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 FC Midtjylland wins0 draws1 Besiktas wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 23 Jul 2026Besiktas1–0FC Midtjylland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Midtjylland | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| FC Midtjylland | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Midtjylland | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 11.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| FC Midtjylland | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 10.44 | 11.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 3.00
Red cards0.13league 0.14
Cards 5+48%league 27%
Fouls22.6league 34.0
Penalties0.23league 0.09
Home wins54%league 41%
FC MidtjyllandNo previous matches with this referee.
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Sep 24A · Ajax0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Midtjylland1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Besiktas1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.