FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Benfica. FC Porto had 8.1 days of rest, Benfica 4 and had to travel 273 km.
Away travel273 kmRest days8.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
FC Porto39%
Draw24%
Benfica37%
FC Porto41%
Draw26%
Benfica33%
FC Porto39%
Draw24%
Benfica37%
FC Porto32%
Draw24%
Benfica44%
FC Porto39%
Draw25%
Benfica36%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
RefereeMiguel Bertolo Nogueira
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
FC Porto
Benfica
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
74
AttackIn forecast
81
80
DefenceIn forecast
81
90
Form indexContext
92
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoBenfica
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.50
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
2.77
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.17
ShotsContext
20.17
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.83
40%
On target shareContext
39%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
14.83
71%
Box shareContext
74%
17%
ConversionContext
17%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.50
Shots allowedContext
5.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
2.67
BlocksContext
1.67
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.20
87%
Save rateContext
60%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
441
PassesContext
584
374
Accurate passesContext
516
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.08
Team ratingContext
7.27
13.17
FoulsContext
12.67
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
2.24
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
90%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
18.86
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.29
35%
On target shareContext
39%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
13.43
69%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.10
Shots allowedContext
6.86
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
2.50
BlocksContext
2.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
77%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
437
PassesContext
555
369
Accurate passesContext
488
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.29
12.90
FoulsContext
11.89
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.89
0.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
WWWWW
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 90 · 15 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Benfica
WWWWW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel273 km3,974 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 4UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 273 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,974 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19.9 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
52Martim Fernandes
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
19André Silva
7William Gomes
Benfica
Confirmed XI
24Samuel Soares(G)
26S. Dahl
2C. Lenglet
44Tomás Araújo
6A. Bah
36João Palhinha
8F. Aursnes
25G. Prestianni
10H. Sudakov
27Rafa
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Benfica · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 4.67
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 4–1 A | W 7–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Academico Viseu | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 FC Porto wins2 draws4 Benfica wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 8 Mar 2026Benfica2–2FC Porto
- 5 Oct 2025FC Porto0–0Benfica
- 6 Apr 2025FC Porto1–4Benfica
- 10 Nov 2024Benfica4–1FC Porto
- 3 Mar 2024FC Porto5–0Benfica
- 29 Sep 2023Benfica1–0FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 4.17 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| FC Porto | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.50 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 2.33 | 4.33 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| FC Porto | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.14 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.80 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Bertolo Nogueira 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 4.10
Red cards0.33league 0.20
Cards 5+33%league 44%
Fouls26.7league 24.7
Penalties0.33league 0.34
Home wins0%league 38%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto6 games · scored 15 · conceded 2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Benfica6 games · scored 21 · conceded 4
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
8
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 30 · conceded 7
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
10
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
