FC Schalke 04
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayern München. FC Schalke 04 had 6 days of rest, Bayern München 7.9 and had to travel 493 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel493 kmRest days6 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Schalke 047%
Draw11%
Bayern München81%
FC Schalke 0410%
Draw17%
Bayern München73%
FC Schalke 048%
Draw11%
Bayern München81%
FC Schalke 045%
Draw8%
Bayern München87%
FC Schalke 048%
Draw13%
Bayern München79%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 0–3
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gelsenkirchen)
20°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 52%
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 72
Team strength
FC Schalke 04
Bayern München
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
33
AttackIn forecast
96
50
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC Schalke 04Bayern München
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
2.61
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.99
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.70
ShotsContext
18.30
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
34%
On target shareContext
41%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
71%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.78
9.80
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.10
BlocksContext
3.60
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
71%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
401
PassesContext
656
306
Accurate passesContext
584
76%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.15
9.80
FoulsContext
7.80
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Schalke 04
L
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km884 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
- L30 AugA · FC Augsburg0–31.2 xPts
Bayern München
W
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel493 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
- W28 AugH · VfB Stuttgart5–12.3 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Schalke 04 |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 7.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 28 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 493 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 884 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Schalke 04
Confirmed XI
1L. Karius(G)
8R. Gosens
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
29É. Dina Ebimbe
24A. Aouchiche
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
21D. Ljubičić
9M. Sylla
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
19A. Davies
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
11N. Brown
42Lennart Karl
34I. Saibari
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Schalke 04
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Schalke 04-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bayern München+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Schalke 04 · Home
No home games yet this season.
Bayern München · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC Schalke 04 wins0 draws2 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.00 – 4.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 13 May 2023Bayern München6–0FC Schalke 04
- 12 Nov 2022FC Schalke 040–2Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Schalke 04 | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 6.00 | 4.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| FC Schalke 04 | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Schalke 04 | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 11.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 12.00 | 11.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.00 | 11.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.47
Red cards0.18league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 27%
Fouls23.4league 23.1
Penalties0.35league 0.07
Home wins49%league 67%
FC Schalke 042 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L13 May 23A · Bayern München0–63
- L7 Aug 22A · 1.FC Köln1–32
Bayern München8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.0.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W6 Mar 26H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–11
- L6 Apr 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–30
- W8 Oct 23H · SC Freiburg3–01
- W13 May 23H · FC Schalke 046–00
- D12 Mar 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Schalke 041 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Bayern München1 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
6
5
31-45
8
3
46-60
5
61-75
10
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
