FC Thun
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 21 · 19:00
Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel650 kmRest days? · 144.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
FC Thun—%
Draw—%
Dinamo Zagreb—%
Weather (Thun)
No weather data yet
Referee · KazakhstanBulat Sariyev
- Cards per match 1.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
FC Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
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26
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
26
AttackIn forecast
33
24
DefenceIn forecast
44
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC ThunDinamo Zagreb
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
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xGVia Att/Def
1.12
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
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Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
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Scored inContext
70%
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Clean sheetsContext
0%
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ShotsContext
10.40
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
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On target shareContext
35%
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Shots in the boxContext
6.78
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Box shareContext
61%
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ConversionContext
15%
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OffsidesContext
1.88
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Shots allowedContext
11.10
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
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BlocksContext
3.00
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Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
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Save rateContext
58%
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PossessionIn forecast
50%
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PassesContext
478
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Accurate passesContext
403
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Pass accuracyContext
84%
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Team ratingContext
6.77
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FoulsContext
10.00
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Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
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Yellow cardsContext
1.60
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Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Thun
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest144.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel650 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Thun |
Dinamo Zagreb |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 144.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 650 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Thun
Confirmed XI
1N. Steffen(G)
27M. Heule
23M. Bürki
19J. Bamert
47F. Fehr
30N. Maier
78V. Matoshi
16J. Roth
70N. Reichmuth
96B. Labeau
9F. Dursun
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
44I. Filipović(G)
3B. Goda
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
25Moris Valinčić
8M. Zajc
27J. Mišić
99M. Oršić
10G. Vidović
21M. Lisica
9D. Beljo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Thun
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
FC Thun · Home
No home games yet this season.
Dinamo Zagreb · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Thun | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| FC Thun | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% | |
| Failed to score | — | 30% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Thun | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.22 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| FC Thun | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 4.60 | |
| Match total | — | 9.20 | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | — | 1.60 | |
| Match total | — | 3.30 | 5.22 |
| Over 3.5 | — | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | — | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bulat Sariyev Kazakhstan · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.50league 4.27
Red cards0.00league 0.30
Cards 5+0%league 36%
Fouls27.0league 20.5
Penalties0.00league 0.42
Home wins100%league 48%
FC ThunNo previous matches with this referee.
Dinamo ZagrebNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC ThunDinamo ZagrebFC ThunDinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.