UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00 Stockhorn Arena, Thun
FC Thun 24th · 0 pts · 1 played
First leg0–7 2–2Full time
Lech Poznan 5th · 3 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel918 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FC Thun—%
Draw—%
Lech Poznan—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Thun)

No weather data yet

RefereeH. U. Meler
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 3

Team strength

FC ThunLech Poznan
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
26 AttackIn forecast 35
24 DefenceIn forecast 23
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Thun

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lech Poznan

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC ThunLech Poznan
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80
2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
— xGVia Att/Def 1.76
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08
— Goals minus xGContext +1.04
80% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 50%
— ShotsContext 18.00
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
25% On target shareContext 36%
— Shots in the boxContext 12.29
— Box shareContext 67%
13% ConversionContext 14%
— OffsidesContext 1.20
— Shots allowedContext 9.75
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.14
5.00 BlocksContext 2.50
— Goalkeeper savesContext 1.86
58% Save rateContext 62%
40% PossessionIn forecast 58%
— PassesContext 483
— Accurate passesContext 409
— Pass accuracyContext 85%
— Team ratingContext 6.96
14.50 FoulsContext 10.10
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 5 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Thun
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,837 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Lech Poznan
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel918 km3,536 km in 14d
Schedule load22%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Thun Lech Poznan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 22
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km918 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,837 km3,536 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one—21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Thun Confirmed XI
4-4-2
25T. Spycher(G)
18T. Strannegård 23M. Bürki 54L. Passavant 37L. Dähler
21D. Derbaci 13N. Zoukit 8F. Saiz 30N. Maier
9F. Dursun 80S. Lengen
Lech Poznan Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul 72M. Skrzypczak 27W. Mońka 20R. Gumny
5K. Berggren 43A. Kozubal
11D. Håkans 77L. Palma 17A. Sayyadmanesh
7M. Agnero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Thun Absences are shown before kick-off
Lech Poznan Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FC Thun · Home No home games yet this season.
Lech Poznan · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 FC Thun wins0 draws1 Lech Poznan wins
Goals per game0.00 – 7.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 20 Aug 2026Lech Poznan7–0FC Thun

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FC ThunLech PoznanForecast
Scored per game 0.007.00
Conceded per game 7.000.00
Match goals 7.007.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 100%100%
Both teams scored 0%0%
Clean sheets 0%100%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games11
FC ThunLech PoznanForecast
Scored per game 1.003.40
Conceded per game 3.670.80
Match goals 4.674.20
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 67%80%
Over 3.5 67%60%
Both teams scored 67%20%
Clean sheets 0%60%
Failed to score 33%20%
Games35

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC ThunLech PoznanLeague
Corners
Corners won3.005.00
Corners conceded5.003.00
Match total8.008.009.83
Over 8.50% 0/10% 0/1
Over 9.50% 0/10% 0/1
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/1
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards1.002.00
Match total3.003.004.50
Over 3.50% 0/10% 0/1
Over 4.50% 0/10% 0/1
FC ThunLech PoznanLeague
Corners
Corners won4.756.90
Corners conceded7.253.70
Match total12.0010.609.83
Over 8.575% 3/460% 6/10
Over 9.575% 3/450% 5/10
Over 10.550% 2/440% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.601.30
Opponent cards3.002.50
Match total5.603.804.50
Over 3.580% 4/560% 6/10
Over 4.560% 3/540% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · H. U. Meler 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 4.21
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 47%
Fouls26.7league 23.0
Penalties0.33league 0.68
Home wins0%league 68%
FC Thun

No previous matches with this referee.

Lech Poznan

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Thun1 games · scored 0 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Lech Poznan1 games · scored 7 · conceded 0
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
FC Thun5 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
4 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Lech Poznan9 games · scored 28 · conceded 5
2 1 0-15
7 16-30
7 31-45
5 3 46-60
3 61-75
4 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.