FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 13). FC Volendam had 7.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7.1 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Volendam19%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar57%
FC Volendam19%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar57%
FC Volendam19%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar57%
FC Volendam14%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar65%
FC Volendam19%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 7
Team strength
FC Volendam
AZ Alkmaar
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
14
AttackIn forecast
52
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamAZ Alkmaar
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
—
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
—
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
6.30
ShotsContext
13.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
40%
On target shareContext
44%
4.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
66%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.44
21.30
Shots allowedContext
10.90
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
6.10
BlocksContext
3.33
5.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
72%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
318
PassesContext
417
234
Accurate passesContext
342
74%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.15
8.30
FoulsContext
11.60
7.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km154 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel27 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 154 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
3M. Amevor
4X. Mbuyamba
2D. Payne
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
7O. Kökçü
21R. Mühren
11A. Oehlers
9H. Veerman
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
26K. Smit
8J. Clasie
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
10S. Mijnans
11I. Sadiq
9T. Parrott
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
No home games yet this season.
AZ Alkmaar · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins0 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 26 Nov 2023AZ Alkmaar3–0FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 5.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| FC Volendam | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 5.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.00 | 10.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| FC Volendam | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.80 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 10.10 | 10.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.25
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+0%league 31%
Fouls28.3league 21.9
Penalties0.43league 0.19
Home wins43%league 56%
FC VolendamNo previous matches with this referee.
AZ AlkmaarNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
AZ Alkmaar1 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 9 · conceded 23
4
5
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
7
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
