FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Volendam
14th · 27 pts · 26 played
WWLWL
First leg0–1
1–2Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 32 pts · 26 played
DLWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fortuna Sittard. FC Volendam had 5.9 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 6.1 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days5.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Volendam36%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard39%
FC Volendam40%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard32%
FC Volendam37%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard38%
FC Volendam29%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard47%
FC Volendam36%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 108
Team strength
FC VolendamFortuna Sittard
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
14
AttackIn forecast
19
19
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamFortuna Sittard
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
65%
Scored inContext
88%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
10.19
ShotsContext
12.88
3.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
34%
On target shareContext
36%
6.31
Shots in the boxContext
8.23
61%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.68
OffsidesContext
1.95
18.73
Shots allowedContext
14.42
6.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.65
5.62
BlocksContext
4.00
4.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
75%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
357
PassesContext
362
285
Accurate passesContext
280
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.31
FoulsContext
12.62
11.96
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.10
ShotsContext
12.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
66%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
20.20
Shots allowedContext
16.60
7.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
5.60
BlocksContext
4.30
6.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
82%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
353
PassesContext
340
278
Accurate passesContext
258
79%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.10
FoulsContext
11.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km188 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 180 km | 188 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
23D. Kwakman
7O. Kökçü
40R. van Cruijsen
11A. Oehlers
4J. Bacuna
77B. Ould-Chikh
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
21N. Kasanwirjo
12Ivo Pinto
23P. Brittijn
20É. Michut
18D. Limnios
70L. Duijvestijn
52M. Ihattaren
19P. Gladon
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.69points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.31
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Groningen | W 3–2 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | L 1–4 HW 3–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game | 29 of 75 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins0 draws3 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 4 Oct 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0FC Volendam
- 28 Jan 2024FC Volendam0–1Fortuna Sittard
- 16 Sep 2023Fortuna Sittard3–1FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 3.42 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 69% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 77% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 12% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| FC Volendam | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 4.20 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.96 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 10.59 | 11.34 | 10.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 18/24 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 15/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 13/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.54 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 12/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 8/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| FC Volendam | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.22 | 8.89 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 12.67 | 10.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.60 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.31league 3.26
Red cards0.13league 0.18
Cards 5+27%league 29%
Fouls21.5league 21.4
Penalties0.31league 0.25
Home wins42%league 44%
FC Volendam3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L13 Dec 25A · Groningen0–32
- W25 Oct 25H · Heracles3–00
- D18 Feb 24A · Vitesse1–13
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L26 Sep 25A · Twente2–32
- D14 May 25A · Almere City FC1–11
- W2 Nov 24H · Heerenveen3–00
- L5 Nov 23A · PEC Zwolle0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam26 games · scored 29 · conceded 44
2
10
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
5
61-75
7
9
76-90
Fortuna Sittard26 games · scored 40 · conceded 49
8
9
0-15
3
10
16-30
9
8
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
10
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 19 · conceded 23
3
6
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
