FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Volendam were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Heracles. FC Volendam had 7.1 days of rest, Heracles 6.1 and had to travel 109 km.
Away travel109 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Volendam44%
Draw27%
Heracles29%
FC Volendam43%
Draw27%
Heracles30%
FC Volendam43%
Draw27%
Heracles30%
FC Volendam37%
Draw27%
Heracles36%
FC Volendam44%
Draw27%
Heracles29%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 91
Team strength
FC Volendam
Heracles
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
14
AttackIn forecast
7
19
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamHeracles
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.78
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
78%
Scored inContext
56%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.44
ShotsContext
9.56
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
33%
On target shareContext
30%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
63%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.78
Shots allowedContext
20.44
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.78
4.56
BlocksContext
6.78
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
76%
Save rateContext
59%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
352
PassesContext
329
280
Accurate passesContext
254
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.78
FoulsContext
11.33
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.89
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.90
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
34%
On target shareContext
31%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
64%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.40
18.10
Shots allowedContext
19.60
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.70
5.40
BlocksContext
6.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
78%
Save rateContext
60%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
339
PassesContext
335
265
Accurate passesContext
261
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.50
FoulsContext
11.10
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel109 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 109 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
2D. Payne
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
7O. Kökçü
40R. van Cruijsen
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
7B. Limbombe
8M. Engels
13J. Žambůrek
70A. Hrustić
9J. Hornkamp
19L. Kulenović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Heracles-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Heracles · Away
0.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-5
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 2.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins2 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Jan 2024Heracles1–1FC Volendam
- 23 Sep 2023FC Volendam2–2Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.78 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 89% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 44% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| FC Volendam | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 3.78 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 89% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 44% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 6.89 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.33 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.78 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| FC Volendam | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.70 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.50
Red cards0.12league 0.20
Cards 5+27%league 36%
Fouls21.6league 22.5
Penalties0.26league 0.24
Home wins42%league 48%
FC Volendam1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Feb 24A · Vitesse1–13
Heracles3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Feb 25H · GO Ahead Eagles4–20
- L14 Dec 24A · Feyenoord2–51
- D28 Sep 23A · AZ Alkmaar1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam9 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Heracles9 games · scored 7 · conceded 27
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
6
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 8 · conceded 29
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
