FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Volendam
17th · 14 pts · 18 played
LLLLL
First leg1–3
2–1Full time
Utrecht
10th · 23 pts · 17 played
DDDDL
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 12). FC Volendam had 7.9 days of rest, Utrecht 28.1 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days7.9 · 28.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
FC Volendam25%
Draw26%
Utrecht49%
FC Volendam26%
Draw26%
Utrecht48%
FC Volendam26%
Draw26%
Utrecht48%
FC Volendam19%
Draw24%
Utrecht57%
FC Volendam25%
Draw26%
Utrecht49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 42
Team strength
FC VolendamUtrecht
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
14
AttackIn forecast
32
19
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamUtrecht
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
67%
Scored inContext
88%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.29
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
34%
On target shareContext
34%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
60%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.53
OffsidesContext
1.64
18.06
Shots allowedContext
12.06
6.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.65
5.61
BlocksContext
4.14
4.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
73%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
359
PassesContext
402
289
Accurate passesContext
323
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.06
FoulsContext
10.76
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
1.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.90
ShotsContext
12.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
33%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
58%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.71
19.50
Shots allowedContext
14.30
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
6.70
BlocksContext
4.00
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
70%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
365
PassesContext
333
298
Accurate passesContext
258
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.81
7.80
FoulsContext
11.20
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km53 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest28.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel45 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 28.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 53 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
23D. Kwakman
18N. Bukala
17J. Ideho
7O. Kökçü
11A. Oehlers
10B. Kuwas
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
10Y. Cathline
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
22Miguel Rodríguez
7V. Jensen
91S. Haller
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Utrecht+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.33
Utrecht · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Groningen | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 14 of 51 · 0.82 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 FC Volendam wins0 draws2 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025Utrecht3–1FC Volendam
- 4 Feb 2024Utrecht4–2FC Volendam
- 6 Oct 2023FC Volendam1–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 59% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 71% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 12% | |
| Games | 18 | 17 |
| FC Volendam | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.82 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.82 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.64 | 9.44 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 10/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 8/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.28 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.23 | 3.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 7/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 12% 2/17 | |
| FC Volendam | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.78 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 11.45 | 9.10 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.10 | 3.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.48league 3.33
Red cards0.10league 0.21
Cards 5+21%league 31%
Fouls19.8league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.28
Home wins57%league 45%
FC Volendam3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Nov 25A · Feyenoord1–30
- L20 Sep 25H · Excelsior1–23
- D9 Aug 25A · Heerenveen1–11
Utrecht4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Sep 25H · Groningen0–10
- L11 May 25A · Twente0–22
- W18 Feb 24A · Twente1–01
- D12 Nov 23H · Excelsior2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam18 games · scored 19 · conceded 32
1
7
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Utrecht17 games · scored 28 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
