Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 1 Wed, Sep 17 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 25). Absences weigh more on Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce had 3 days of rest, Alanyaspor 4 and had to travel 563 km.
Away travel563 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fenerbahce70%
Draw19%
Alanyaspor12%
Fenerbahce69%
Draw19%
Alanyaspor12%
Fenerbahce70%
Draw19%
Alanyaspor11%
Fenerbahce63%
Draw22%
Alanyaspor16%
Fenerbahce69%
Draw19%
Alanyaspor12%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Alanyaspor
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
75
AttackIn forecast
18
53
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceAlanyaspor
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
2.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
75%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
19.00
ShotsContext
8.75
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.25
26%
On target shareContext
26%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.25
59%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
6.75
Shots allowedContext
10.00
1.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.33
BlocksContext
3.00
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
83%
Save rateContext
80%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
483
PassesContext
355
417
Accurate passesContext
285
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.25
FoulsContext
13.75
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.25
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.90
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
31%
On target shareContext
33%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
53%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.14
9.90
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.75
BlocksContext
2.71
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
70%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
444
PassesContext
409
376
Accurate passesContext
346
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.90
FoulsContext
12.00
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel563 km307 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 563 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 307 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
1İ. Eğribayat(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
7Fred
5İ. Yüksek
70O. Aydın
94Talisca
53S. Szymański
19Y. En-Nesyri
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
8Enes Keskin
16U. Hwang
27Ibrahim Kaya
22Uchenna Ogundu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Alanyaspor · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 9 Feb 2025Alanyaspor0–2Fenerbahce
- 30 Aug 2024Fenerbahce3–0Alanyaspor
- 11 Feb 2024Fenerbahce2–2Alanyaspor
- 24 Sep 2023Alanyaspor0–1Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Fenerbahce | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 6.00 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.75 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 6.25 | 5.25 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Fenerbahce | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 6.88 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.70 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.46
Red cards0.25league 0.31
Cards 5+25%league 49%
Fouls31.5league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins25%league 41%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce4 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Alanyaspor4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
