Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 28 Sun, Apr 5 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Besiktas. Fenerbahce had 19 days of rest, Besiktas 17 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days19 · 17Matches / 14d0 · 0
Fenerbahce45%
Draw26%
Besiktas29%
Fenerbahce55%
Draw24%
Besiktas21%
Fenerbahce45%
Draw26%
Besiktas29%
Fenerbahce38%
Draw26%
Besiktas36%
Fenerbahce44%
Draw27%
Besiktas29%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 35
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Besiktas
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
75
AttackIn forecast
60
53
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceBesiktas
2.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.81
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
89%
Scored inContext
89%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.70
ShotsContext
15.93
5.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.15
36%
On target shareContext
39%
9.85
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
59%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.44
3.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.36
BlocksContext
3.00
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
76%
Save rateContext
72%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
475
PassesContext
422
410
Accurate passesContext
349
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.52
FoulsContext
12.74
13.93
Fouls sufferedContext
11.93
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.15
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.74
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
17.90
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
58%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.80
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
2.70
BlocksContext
2.50
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
68%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
465
PassesContext
456
396
Accurate passesContext
380
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.50
FoulsContext
12.90
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest19 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest17 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Mar | 17Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
45D. Nene
21Marco Asensio
20A. Musaba
94Talisca
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
14O. Uduokhai
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
4O. Ndidi
23K. Asllani
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Besiktas+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-0
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 1.00
Besiktas · Away
1.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-2
- Scored
- 1.85
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 5–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–2 H | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Points | 57 of 78 · 2.19 per game | 52 of 78 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Fenerbahce wins0 draws2 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 2 Nov 2025Besiktas2–3Fenerbahce
- 4 May 2025Fenerbahce0–1Besiktas
- 7 Dec 2024Besiktas1–0Fenerbahce
- 27 Apr 2024Fenerbahce2–1Besiktas
- 9 Dec 2023Besiktas1–3Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.26 | 1.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.96 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 59% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 59% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.80 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 5.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.19 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.77 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 18/24 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 15/24 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 13/24 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.04 | 3.15 | |
| Match total | 5.34 | 5.52 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 20/27 | 81% 22/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 15/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 12.90 | 9.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 6.00 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.14league 4.44
Red cards0.43league 0.22
Cards 5+60%league 45%
Fouls26.3league 26.1
Penalties0.29league 0.27
Home wins34%league 40%
Fenerbahce5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Feb 26H · Kasimpasa1–13
- D1 Dec 25H · Galatasaray1–13
- D16 Aug 25A · Goztepe0–04
- L4 May 25H · Besiktas0–13
- W13 Apr 25A · Sivasspor3–12
Besiktas5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W15 Mar 26A · Genclerbirligi2–01
- D26 Jan 26A · Eyüpspor2–21
- D4 Oct 25A · Galatasaray1–15
- W4 May 25A · Fenerbahce1–03
- W29 Mar 25H · Galatasaray2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce27 games · scored 61 · conceded 28
7
7
0-15
8
7
16-30
14
3
31-45
7
5
46-60
10
3
61-75
15
3
76-90
Besiktas27 games · scored 49 · conceded 31
10
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
10
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
7
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
