Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 5 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 45). Absences weigh more on Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce had 5.9 days of rest, Besiktas 4.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Fenerbahce56%
Draw21%
Besiktas22%
Fenerbahce57%
Draw23%
Besiktas20%
Fenerbahce57%
Draw21%
Besiktas21%
Fenerbahce48%
Draw23%
Besiktas29%
Fenerbahce56%
Draw22%
Besiktas22%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeH. U. Meler
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Besiktas
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
75
AttackIn forecast
60
53
DefenceIn forecast
48
55
Form indexContext
51
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceBesiktas
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.41
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.70
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
20.67
ShotsContext
17.00
9.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
44%
On target shareContext
35%
16.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
82%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.67
11.00
Shots allowedContext
8.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
2.00
BlocksContext
5.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
64%
Save rateContext
57%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
500
PassesContext
493
444
Accurate passesContext
427
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.00
FoulsContext
14.33
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
16.50
ShotsContext
18.50
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
42%
On target shareContext
37%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.25
69%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
3.67
10.90
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.40
BlocksContext
4.40
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
78%
Save rateContext
58%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
515
PassesContext
485
451
Accurate passesContext
419
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.10
FoulsContext
10.14
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
LWW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,240 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 55 · 6 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,240 km | 4,302 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
91N. Kanté
6M. Guendouzi
70O. Aydın
17İ. Kahveci
11M. Greenwood
19V. Muriqi
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard
10O. Kökçü
15Junior Olaitan
18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Besiktas+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Besiktas · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Fenerbahce wins0 draws2 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 5 Apr 2026Fenerbahce1–0Besiktas
- 2 Nov 2025Besiktas2–3Fenerbahce
- 4 May 2025Fenerbahce0–1Besiktas
- 7 Dec 2024Besiktas1–0Fenerbahce
- 27 Apr 2024Fenerbahce2–1Besiktas
- 9 Dec 2023Besiktas1–3Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.33 | 7.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 12.67 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 1.67 | 3.66 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Fenerbahce | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.25 | 7.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 12.29 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · H. U. Meler 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.45
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+50%league 38%
Fouls28.5league 25.9
Penalties0.25league 0.38
Home wins0%league 45%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce3 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Besiktas3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
