Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 34 Sun, May 17 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce had 8 days of rest, Eyüpspor 8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Eyüpspor8%
Fenerbahce74%
Draw17%
Eyüpspor9%
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Eyüpspor8%
Fenerbahce70%
Draw18%
Eyüpspor12%
Fenerbahce76%
Draw15%
Eyüpspor9%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 21
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Eyüpspor
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
75
AttackIn forecast
9
53
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceEyüpspor
2.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.91
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
88%
Scored inContext
55%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
16.52
ShotsContext
10.03
6.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.58
Shots in the boxContext
6.19
58%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.47
10.18
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.61
3.63
BlocksContext
4.10
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
75%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
467
PassesContext
373
401
Accurate passesContext
302
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.52
FoulsContext
11.76
14.03
Fouls sufferedContext
14.82
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.20
ShotsContext
8.60
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
40%
On target shareContext
29%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.89
55%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.43
11.40
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.89
BlocksContext
3.70
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
68%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
462
PassesContext
361
392
Accurate passesContext
286
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.60
FoulsContext
12.30
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 926 km | 1,225 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 65 | 91.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
3A. Brown
4Ç. Söyüncü
14Y. Demir
18M. Müldür
17N. Kanté
5İ. Yüksek
20A. Musaba
7Fred
70O. Aydın
9M. Aktürkoğlu
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
4Luccas Claro
5B. Özyurt
2Calegari
28T. İlter
26Metehan Altunbaş
55B. Gezek
20M. Łęgowski
22Denis Radu
19U. Bozok
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-5-0
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 1.00
Eyüpspor · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-9
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HW 5–2 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 AW 4–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | W 1–0 HW 3–2 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 70 of 96 · 2.19 per game | 32 of 96 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Eyüpspor0–3Fenerbahce
- 18 May 2025Fenerbahce2–1Eyüpspor
- 20 Dec 2024Eyüpspor1–1Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.24 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 2.27 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 45% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 42% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 45% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.10 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 11.14 | 9.20 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 23/30 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 19/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 15/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.24 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 5.57 | 4.24 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 26/33 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 19/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.30 | 8.50 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.50 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.10league 4.41
Red cards0.10league 0.22
Cards 5+19%league 44%
Fouls24.7league 26.0
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins52%league 42%
Fenerbahce3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Mar 26A · Fatih Karagümrük0–23
- W18 Jan 26A · Alanyaspor3–20
- W23 Aug 25H · Kocaelispor3–12
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 May 26A · Kayserispor1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce33 games · scored 74 · conceded 34
8
7
0-15
9
7
16-30
15
5
31-45
10
6
46-60
13
4
61-75
19
5
76-90
Eyüpspor33 games · scored 30 · conceded 45
4
7
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
7
61-75
8
16
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
