Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray – 1 Dec 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 14 Mon, Dec 1 · 17:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 2nd · 31 pts · 13 played WWWWW

1–1Full time

Galatasaray 1st · 32 pts · 13 played WWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Galatasaray. Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Galatasaray 9 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days4 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Fenerbahce43%

Draw26%

Galatasaray31%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.31

Fenerbahce40%

Draw27%

Galatasaray33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Fenerbahce40%

Draw26%

Galatasaray34%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.35

Fenerbahce35%

Draw26%

Galatasaray39%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.47

Fenerbahce42%

Draw27%

Galatasaray31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.23

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

RefereeYasin Kol

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 26

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Galatasaray

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

75 AttackIn forecast 57

53 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Galatasaray

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Galatasaray

2.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.15

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.62

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.25

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

85% Scored inContext 85%

38% Clean sheetsContext 46%

18.62 ShotsContext 17.46

7.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.23

38% On target shareContext 36%

10.85 Shots in the boxContext 11.77

58% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.20

8.31 Shots allowedContext 9.15

2.85 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.46

3.30 BlocksContext 2.36

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.92

78% Save rateContext 81%

60% PossessionIn forecast 63%

479 PassesContext 490

417 Accurate passesContext 428

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.02 Team ratingContext 7.09

12.62 FoulsContext 11.46

13.31 Fouls sufferedContext 9.62

2.31 Yellow cardsContext 1.62

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 2.24

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.64

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

18.40 ShotsContext 17.30

7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

41% On target shareContext 35%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

54% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.44

9.80 Shots allowedContext 9.30

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

2.78 BlocksContext 3.00

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

82% Save rateContext 76%

56% PossessionIn forecast 57%

441 PassesContext 438

376 Accurate passesContext 375

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.04

10.80 FoulsContext 10.50

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Galatasaray

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Galatasaray
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov	9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,940 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

11E. Álvarez

9M. Aktürkoğlu 5İ. Yüksek 21Marco Asensio 45D. Nene

19Y. En-Nesyri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Galatasaray Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1U. Çakır(G)

88K. Karataş 42A. Bardakcı 99M. Lemina 6D. Sánchez

34L. Torreira 20İ. Gündoğan

53B. Yılmaz 8Gabriel Sara 10L. Sané

45V. Osimhen

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Galatasaray Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+2.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Galatasaray-2.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.00

Galatasaray · Away 2.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Fenerbahce	Galatasaray
Rizespor	W 5–2 A	W 3–1 H
Kayserispor	W 4–2 H	W 4–0 A
Besiktas	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 4–0 A	W 3–0 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–1 H	W 3–0 H
Alanyaspor	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Trabzonspor	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Genclerbirligi	W 3–1 A	W 3–2 H
Kocaelispor	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 A
Goztepe	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 H
Points	26 of 30 · 2.60 per game	23 of 30 · 2.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Fenerbahce wins2 draws1 Galatasaray wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets75% · 50%

24 Feb 2025Galatasaray0–0Fenerbahce
21 Sep 2024Fenerbahce1–3Galatasaray
19 May 2024Galatasaray0–1Fenerbahce
24 Dec 2023Fenerbahce0–0Galatasaray

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Galatasaray	Forecast
Scored per game	2.31	2.15
Conceded per game	0.92	0.62
Match goals	3.23	2.77	2.88
Over 1.5	77%	77%
Over 2.5	62%	62%	55%
Over 3.5	54%	38%
Both teams scored	62%	46%	58%
Clean sheets	38%	46%
Failed to score	15%	15%
Games	13	13

	Fenerbahce	Galatasaray	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.80
Conceded per game	0.90	0.80
Match goals	3.10	2.60	2.88
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Galatasaray	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.17
Corners conceded	4.00	3.50
Match total	9.50	8.67	9.62
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	42% 5/12
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 4/12
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.77
Opponent cards	3.38	2.38
Match total	5.76	4.15	4.73
Over 3.5	77% 10/13	46% 6/13
Over 4.5	62% 8/13	38% 5/13

	Fenerbahce	Galatasaray	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.90
Corners conceded	5.20	3.70
Match total	10.30	8.60	9.62
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.30	2.50
Opponent cards	2.80	2.80
Match total	6.10	5.30	4.73
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Yasin Kol 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.15league 4.44

Red cards0.50league 0.27

Cards 5+65%league 47%

Fouls27.2league 26.1

Penalties0.35league 0.28

Home wins35%league 36%

Fenerbahce3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D16 Aug 25A · Goztepe0–04
L4 May 25H · Besiktas0–13
W13 Apr 25A · Sivasspor3–12

Galatasaray4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds3

D4 Oct 25H · Besiktas1–12
W22 Sep 25H · Konyaspor3–11
L29 Mar 25A · Besiktas1–24
W9 Mar 25A · Alanyaspor2–18

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.