Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 21 Mon, Feb 9 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce
2nd · 46 pts · 20 played
WWWDW
3–1Full time
Genclerbirligi
11th · 22 pts · 20 played
DWDLW
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genclerbirligi. Fenerbahce had 7 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 8.1 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Genclerbirligi7%
Fenerbahce79%
Draw14%
Genclerbirligi7%
Fenerbahce78%
Draw15%
Genclerbirligi7%
Fenerbahce71%
Draw18%
Genclerbirligi10%
Fenerbahce76%
Draw16%
Genclerbirligi8%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 15
Team strength
FenerbahceGenclerbirligi
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
75
AttackIn forecast
13
53
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceGenclerbirligi
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
90%
Scored inContext
75%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
17.20
ShotsContext
10.50
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
36%
On target shareContext
34%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
59%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.45
Shots allowedContext
14.90
2.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.80
BlocksContext
4.27
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
80%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
474
PassesContext
305
409
Accurate passesContext
237
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.25
FoulsContext
12.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
11.60
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
39%
On target shareContext
37%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
56%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.90
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.75
BlocksContext
4.13
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
79%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
490
PassesContext
305
419
Accurate passesContext
236
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.30
FoulsContext
13.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Feb | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,301 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
18M. Müldür
24J. Oosterwolde
4Ç. Söyüncü
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
9M. Aktürkoğlu
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
94Talisca
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
35O. Ülgün
11G. Gürpüz
22S. Koïta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-0
- Scored
- 2.22
- Conceded
- 0.89
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-7
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Rizespor | W 5–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 1–0 H | W 4–3 H |
| Points | 43 of 57 · 2.26 per game | 22 of 57 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Fenerbahce wins0 draws0 Genclerbirligi wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Genclerbirligi1–3Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.65 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 65% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 25% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Fenerbahce | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.59 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 9.00 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 11/17 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.45 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 15/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 12/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Fenerbahce | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.60 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.90 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.87league 4.41
Red cards0.27league 0.22
Cards 5+60%league 46%
Fouls25.2league 25.9
Penalties0.60league 0.26
Home wins53%league 35%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W19 Oct 25H · Fatih Karagümrük2–12
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce20 games · scored 45 · conceded 17
5
4
0-15
6
6
16-30
11
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi20 games · scored 25 · conceded 28
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
4
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
