Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 21 · 19:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,300 kmRest days65 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Gornik Zabrze—%
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · LithuaniaManfredas Lukjancukas
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 25
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Gornik Zabrze
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
75
AttackIn forecast
21
53
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGornik Zabrze
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceGornik Zabrze
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.90
ShotsContext
14.10
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
39%
On target shareContext
31%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
55%
Box shareContext
48%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.67
BlocksContext
4.20
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
68%
Save rateContext
82%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
486
PassesContext
425
416
Accurate passesContext
351
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.50
FoulsContext
9.80
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest65 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gornik Zabrze
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,300 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Gornik Zabrze |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 65Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 May | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
24J. Oosterwolde
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
28B. Elmaz
6M. Guendouzi
9M. Aktürkoğlu
7Fred
17İ. Kahveci
94Talisca
Gornik Zabrze
Confirmed XI
1P. Schulze(G)
64E. Janža
20Josema Sánchez
26R. Janicki
61M. Sáček
82K. Urbański
66M. Dietz
18L. Sadílek
33M. Khlan
11E. Prekop
7Yvan Ikia Dimi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gornik Zabrze
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
No home games yet this season.
Gornik Zabrze · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Gornik Zabrze | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Fenerbahce | Gornik Zabrze | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — | |
| Failed to score | 20% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Gornik Zabrze | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.22 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Fenerbahce | Gornik Zabrze | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.56 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.90 | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 3.30 | 5.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Manfredas Lukjancukas Lithuania · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 4.27
Red cards0.32league 0.30
Cards 5+56%league 36%
Fouls21.8league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.42
Home wins56%league 48%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
Gornik ZabrzeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FenerbahceGornik ZabrzeFenerbahce10 games · scored 23 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
9
3
76-90
Gornik Zabrze10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.