Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce
2nd · 67 pts · 31 played
WWWDL
3–1Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
5th · 51 pts · 31 played
DDWDW
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Istanbul Basaksehir. Fenerbahce had 6 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fenerbahce49%
Draw24%
Istanbul Basaksehir27%
Fenerbahce59%
Draw23%
Istanbul Basaksehir18%
Fenerbahce53%
Draw23%
Istanbul Basaksehir24%
Fenerbahce41%
Draw24%
Istanbul Basaksehir34%
Fenerbahce49%
Draw24%
Istanbul Basaksehir27%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
FenerbahceIstanbul Basaksehir
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
75
AttackIn forecast
32
53
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceIstanbul Basaksehir
2.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
87%
Scored inContext
81%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
16.19
ShotsContext
13.03
5.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.45
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
58%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.81
10.06
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.72
BlocksContext
3.75
2.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.03
75%
Save rateContext
76%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
468
PassesContext
429
402
Accurate passesContext
364
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.65
FoulsContext
12.74
14.32
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.10
ShotsContext
13.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
56%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.67
BlocksContext
3.89
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
68%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
474
PassesContext
413
402
Accurate passesContext
345
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.40
FoulsContext
12.50
16.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,807 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
4Ç. Söyüncü
27Nélson Semedo
17N. Kanté
5İ. Yüksek
9M. Aktürkoğlu
7Fred
20A. Musaba
94Talisca
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
88K. Karataş
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
91B. Yıldırım
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-3.4 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+3.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-5-0
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 1.00
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-5
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HW 5–2 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 AW 4–2 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | W 1–0 HW 3–2 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 66 of 90 · 2.20 per game | 50 of 90 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game2.60 – 0.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 6 Dec 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Fenerbahce
- 9 May 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–4Fenerbahce
- 15 Dec 2024Fenerbahce3–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 24 Jan 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–1Fenerbahce
- 28 Sep 2023Fenerbahce4–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.19 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.68 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 58% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 55% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 19% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Fenerbahce | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.64 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.61 | 4.97 | |
| Match total | 11.25 | 9.70 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 22/28 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 18/28 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 14/28 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.29 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 5.68 | 4.55 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 24/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 19/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Fenerbahce | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 8.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.20 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.82league 4.44
Red cards0.09league 0.22
Cards 5+9%league 46%
Fouls23.0league 26.0
Penalties0.09league 0.28
Home wins45%league 41%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Feb 26H · Konyaspor2–03
- W14 Dec 25A · Samsunspor2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce31 games · scored 68 · conceded 33
7
7
0-15
8
7
16-30
15
4
31-45
8
6
46-60
11
4
61-75
19
5
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir31 games · scored 52 · conceded 31
6
0-15
8
2
16-30
9
8
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
9
61-75
13
8
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
