Fenerbahce vs Kayserispor – 9 Nov 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 9 · 17:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 2nd · 25 pts · 11 played WDWWW

4–2Full time

Kayserispor 16th · 9 pts · 11 played DLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were clear favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 16). Fenerbahce had 2.9 days of rest, Kayserispor 7.1 and had to travel 613 km.

Away travel613 kmRest days2.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Fenerbahce77%

Draw15%

Kayserispor8%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.73

Fenerbahce77%

Draw15%

Kayserispor8%

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.70

Fenerbahce78%

Draw15%

Kayserispor7%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.72

Fenerbahce71%

Draw18%

Kayserispor11%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.82

Fenerbahce76%

Draw16%

Kayserispor8%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.71

Over 2.5 65% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.10
Matches 10

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Kayserispor

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

75 AttackIn forecast 16

53 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Kayserispor

1.91 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.18

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

82% Scored inContext 73%

45% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.00 ShotsContext 12.18

6.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.36

37% On target shareContext 36%

10.36 Shots in the boxContext 7.27

60% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.11

9.00 Shots allowedContext 12.27

2.91 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.45

3.44 BlocksContext 2.25

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22

83% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

483 PassesContext 362

417 Accurate passesContext 288

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.61

13.27 FoulsContext 13.55

13.73 Fouls sufferedContext 13.45

2.55 Yellow cardsContext 2.82

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.50 ShotsContext 12.50

6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

42% On target shareContext 36%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

53% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.11

11.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.40 BlocksContext 2.14

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

85% Save rateContext 66%

57% PossessionIn forecast 51%

454 PassesContext 365

383 Accurate passesContext 289

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.60

12.50 FoulsContext 13.70

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

3.40 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,806 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kayserispor

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel613 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Kayserispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov	7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,806 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	12.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

11E. Álvarez

9M. Aktürkoğlu 7Fred 21Marco Asensio 45D. Nene

94Talisca

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1O. Piri(G)

23L. Carole 4S. Denswil 5S. Hosseini 28R. Civelek

15Y. Ait Bennasser

7Miguel Cardoso 8L. Bénes 33F. Soyalp 20Carlos Mané

9G. Onugkha

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kayserispor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce-0.5 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Kayserispor+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.80

Kayserispor · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Fenerbahce	Kayserispor
Besiktas	W 3–2 A	L 0–4 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Samsunspor	D 0–0 A	L 1–3 H
Antalyaspor	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Kasimpasa	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Trabzonspor	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 A
Genclerbirligi	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 H
Kocaelispor	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Goztepe	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Points	21 of 27 · 2.33 per game	8 of 27 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Kayserispor wins

Goals per game4.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

20 Apr 2025Fenerbahce3–3Kayserispor
23 Nov 2024Kayserispor2–6Fenerbahce
12 May 2024Fenerbahce3–0Kayserispor
20 Dec 2023Kayserispor3–4Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.91	1.00
Conceded per game	0.73	2.18
Match goals	2.64	3.18	3.35
Over 1.5	73%	100%
Over 2.5	55%	55%	65%
Over 3.5	45%	55%
Both teams scored	55%	73%	48%
Clean sheets	45%	0%
Failed to score	18%	27%
Games	11	11

	Fenerbahce	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.00
Conceded per game	0.80	2.30
Match goals	2.40	3.30	3.35
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	65%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.10
Corners conceded	4.13	4.90
Match total	9.13	10.00	9.54
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.64	2.91
Opponent cards	3.45	2.09
Match total	6.09	5.00	4.86
Over 3.5	73% 8/11	82% 9/11
Over 4.5	73% 8/11	64% 7/11

	Fenerbahce	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.89
Corners conceded	5.40	4.89
Match total	10.10	9.78	9.54
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.40	3.10
Opponent cards	3.00	2.20
Match total	6.40	5.30	4.86
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 4.58

Red cards0.30league 0.26

Cards 5+40%league 50%

Fouls23.8league 26.1

Penalties0.10league 0.26

Home wins50%league 38%

Fenerbahce2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 Sep 25H · Trabzonspor1–04
W18 May 25H · Eyüpspor2–12

Kayserispor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.