Fenerbahce vs Kocaelispor – 23 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 23 · 19:30 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–1Full time

Kocaelispor 15th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were clear favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 25). Fenerbahce usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Fenerbahce had 7 days of rest, Kocaelispor 7.1 and had to travel 197 km.

Away travel197 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Fenerbahce69%

Draw19%

Kocaelispor12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.80

Fenerbahce68%

Draw20%

Kocaelispor12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Fenerbahce69%

Draw19%

Kocaelispor12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.80

Fenerbahce62%

Draw22%

Kocaelispor16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.90

Fenerbahce68%

Draw20%

Kocaelispor12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Over 2.5 58% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen

Cards per match 2.6
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 5

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Kocaelispor

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

75 AttackIn forecast 16

53 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kocaelispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Kocaelispor

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def 1.02

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

— Goals minus xGContext -1.02

— Scored inContext 0%

— Clean sheetsContext 0%

— ShotsContext 11.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

— On target shareContext 27%

— Shots in the boxContext 8.00

— Box shareContext 74%

— ConversionContext 0%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

— Shots allowedContext 12.00

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

— BlocksContext 2.00

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext 100%

— PossessionIn forecast 42%

— PassesContext 283

— Accurate passesContext 209

— Pass accuracyContext 74%

— Team ratingContext 6.62

— FoulsContext 12.00

— Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

— Yellow cardsContext 1.00

— Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 0 and 2 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

2.25 xGVia Att/Def —

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext —

20% Clean sheetsContext —

15.70 ShotsContext —

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

38% On target shareContext —

9.60 Shots in the boxContext —

61% Box shareContext —

12% ConversionContext —

3.00 OffsidesContext —

10.70 Shots allowedContext —

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.44 BlocksContext —

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext —

73% Save rateContext —

54% PossessionIn forecast —

424 PassesContext —

356 Accurate passesContext —

84% Pass accuracyContext —

7.08 Team ratingContext —

12.70 FoulsContext —

14.60 Fouls sufferedContext —

2.50 Yellow cardsContext —

0.10 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km656 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kocaelispor

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel197 km2,092 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Kocaelispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Aug	7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	197 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	656 km	2,092 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1İ. Eğribayat(G)

4Ç. Söyüncü 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

33A. Brown 7Fred 5İ. Yüksek 70O. Aydın

94Talisca

10J. Durán 19Y. En-Nesyri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Kocaelispor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Jovanović(G)

21M. Haïdara 34O. Syrota 5A. Appindangoyé 2A. Dijksteel

98J. Nonge Boende 15T. Serbest 14Show

20Ryan Mendes 9B. Petković 70C. Keles

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Absences are shown before kick-off

Kocaelispor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Kocaelispor+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home No home games yet this season.

Kocaelispor · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	0.00	1.00	3.01
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	2

	Fenerbahce	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	0.00	1.00	3.01
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.50
Corners conceded	3.00	5.00
Match total	8.00	9.50	9.13
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	4.00	1.50
Opponent cards	7.00	2.00
Match total	11.00	3.50	3.94
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2

	Fenerbahce	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	4.50
Corners conceded	3.40	5.00
Match total	9.50	9.50	9.13
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.50
Opponent cards	2.60	2.00
Match total	5.30	3.50	3.94
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 1/2

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.60league 3.56

Red cards0.00league 0.38

Cards 5+0%league 31%

Fouls20.5league 26.2

Penalties0.00league 0.38

Home wins40%league 38%

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

Kocaelispor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.