Süper Lig Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:30 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Fenerbahce were clear favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Konyaspor 7.1 and had to travel 463 km.

Away travel463 kmRest days4 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Fenerbahce77%
Draw14%
Konyaspor9%
Expected goals 2.66 – 0.79
Fenerbahce72%
Draw17%
Konyaspor11%
Expected goals 2.31 – 0.77
Fenerbahce77%
Draw14%
Konyaspor9%
Expected goals 2.66 – 0.79
Fenerbahce71%
Draw17%
Konyaspor12%
Expected goals 2.38 – 0.88
Fenerbahce76%
Draw15%
Konyaspor9%
Expected goals 2.56 – 0.78
Over 2.5 67% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
  • Cards per match 5.7
  • Penalties per match 0.32
  • Matches 28

Team strength

FenerbahceKonyaspor
62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
75 AttackIn forecast 13
53 DefenceIn forecast 31
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—
Defense risk—

Konyaspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FenerbahceKonyaspor
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.20 ShotsContext 11.20
6.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30
42% On target shareContext 38%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.70
62% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.57 OffsidesContext 1.29
11.40 Shots allowedContext 14.00
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
3.60 BlocksContext 3.89
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
72% Save rateContext 72%
60% PossessionIn forecast 46%
518 PassesContext 364
451 Accurate passesContext 292
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.85
11.70 FoulsContext 13.00
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,243 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 34 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
  • L15 AugA · Genclerbirligi1–22.1 xPts
Konyaspor
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel463 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
  • L15 AugH · Rizespor0–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Fenerbahce Konyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 18 Aug7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km463 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,243 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 50 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one46.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
7M. Aktürkoğlu 10Marco Asensio 11M. Greenwood
19V. Muriqi
Konyaspor Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1D. Ertaş(G)
17Y. Andzouana 4A. Demirbağ 15C. Awaziem 5U. Yazğılı
77M. İbrahimoğlu 66R. Tóth
19E. Colley 7Diogo Gonçalves 9D. Türüç
11J. Muleka

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Fenerbahce Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Fenerbahce+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Konyaspor+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home No home games yet this season.
Konyaspor · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game3.17 – 0.67 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%
  • 9 May 2026Konyaspor0–3Fenerbahce
  • 15 Dec 2025Fenerbahce4–0Konyaspor
  • 31 May 2025Fenerbahce2–1Konyaspor
  • 13 Jan 2025Konyaspor2–3Fenerbahce
  • 6 May 2024Konyaspor0–0Fenerbahce
  • 10 Jan 2024Fenerbahce7–1Konyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.46league 2.92
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+64%league 33%
Fouls24.9league 24.6
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins36%league 33%
Fenerbahce2 with this referee
Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W9 May 26A · Konyaspor3–01
  • W27 Oct 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep4–05
Konyaspor3 with this referee
Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1
  • L9 May 26H · Fenerbahce0–33
  • W21 Feb 26H · Galatasaray2–04
  • L25 May 25H · Alanyaspor1–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Fenerbahce1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
76-90
Konyaspor1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
4 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
4 61-75
7 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.