Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round
Play-off round Tue, Aug 18 · 20:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,001 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Lyon—%
Weather (İstanbul)
Warm
24°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 76%
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 109
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Lyon
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
75
AttackIn forecast
55
53
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceLyon
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.50
ShotsContext
13.50
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
41%
On target shareContext
39%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
61%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.60
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.44
BlocksContext
3.88
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
73%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
516
PassesContext
440
448
Accurate passesContext
372
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.80
FoulsContext
11.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
L
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,243 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 34 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
- L15 AugA · Genclerbirligi1–22.1 xPts
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,001 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Süper Lig 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,001 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,243 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
91N. Kanté
7M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
11M. Greenwood
19V. Muriqi
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
21R. Kluivert
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
7E. Nuamah
17I. Openda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
No home games yet this season.
Lyon · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Lyon wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 23 Jan 2025Fenerbahce0–0Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Fenerbahce | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Fenerbahce | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 7.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 12.70 | |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.40 | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82
Red cards0.11
Cards 5+39%
Fouls20.5
Penalties0.18
Home wins41%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
Lyon1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Oct 24A · Rangers4–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FenerbahceLyonFenerbahce10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.