Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 30 Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rizespor. Fenerbahce had 6 days of rest, Rizespor 4 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days6 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Fenerbahce62%
Draw21%
Rizespor16%
Fenerbahce69%
Draw19%
Rizespor11%
Fenerbahce64%
Draw21%
Rizespor15%
Fenerbahce55%
Draw24%
Rizespor22%
Fenerbahce61%
Draw22%
Rizespor17%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 17
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Rizespor
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
75
AttackIn forecast
22
53
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceRizespor
2.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
90%
Scored inContext
76%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
16.62
ShotsContext
12.14
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.72
36%
On target shareContext
31%
9.72
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
58%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.86
Shots allowedContext
13.24
3.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.63
BlocksContext
3.86
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
77%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
476
PassesContext
381
410
Accurate passesContext
311
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.52
FoulsContext
13.52
14.24
Fouls sufferedContext
12.72
2.28
Yellow cardsContext
2.34
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.60
ShotsContext
13.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
58%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.90
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.50
BlocksContext
3.70
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
71%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
482
PassesContext
383
414
Accurate passesContext
313
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.60
FoulsContext
13.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel970 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load32%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 32 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 1,940 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
4Ç. Söyüncü
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
45D. Nene
26S. Chérif
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
50L. Augusto
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Rizespor+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-4-0
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 0.93
Rizespor · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-5
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 AW 4–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Besiktas | W 1–0 HW 3–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 63 of 84 · 2.25 per game | 36 of 84 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Fenerbahce wins0 draws0 Rizespor wins
Goals per game4.20 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Rizespor2–5Fenerbahce
- 2 Feb 2025Fenerbahce3–2Rizespor
- 25 Aug 2024Rizespor0–5Fenerbahce
- 17 Feb 2024Rizespor1–3Fenerbahce
- 1 Oct 2023Fenerbahce5–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.28 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.24 | 2.72 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 55% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 55% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 24% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Fenerbahce | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.73 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 11.35 | 8.58 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 20/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 16/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 14/26 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 5.41 | 4.20 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 22/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 17/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Fenerbahce | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.90 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 12.70 | 8.66 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.40 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 4.41
Red cards0.06league 0.21
Cards 5+41%league 45%
Fouls26.6league 26.1
Penalties0.41league 0.28
Home wins47%league 40%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Dec 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–13
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Feb 26A · Kasimpasa3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce29 games · scored 66 · conceded 28
7
7
0-15
8
7
16-30
15
3
31-45
8
5
46-60
11
3
61-75
17
3
76-90
Rizespor29 games · scored 39 · conceded 40
6
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
5
46-60
3
9
61-75
11
11
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
