Fenerbahce vs Samsunspor – 8 Mar 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 25 Sun, Mar 8 · 17:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 2nd · 54 pts · 24 played WWWDD

3–2Full time

Samsunspor 7th · 32 pts · 24 played WLLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Samsunspor. Fenerbahce had 7 days of rest, Samsunspor 7 and had to travel 619 km.

Away travel619 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2

Fenerbahce60%

Draw23%

Samsunspor17%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.91

Fenerbahce68%

Draw20%

Samsunspor12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Fenerbahce61%

Draw23%

Samsunspor16%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.85

Fenerbahce52%

Draw26%

Samsunspor22%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.02

Fenerbahce58%

Draw24%

Samsunspor17%

Expected goals 1.77 – 0.86

Over 2.5 53% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 17

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Samsunspor

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

75 AttackIn forecast 15

53 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Samsunspor

2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.04

0.96 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

92% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.83 ShotsContext 12.21

6.04 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

36% On target shareContext 28%

9.96 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

59% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.63 Shots allowedContext 11.29

3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.61

3.47 BlocksContext 3.10

2.62 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.85

79% Save rateContext 72%

59% PossessionIn forecast 53%

469 PassesContext 420

404 Accurate passesContext 349

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.83 FoulsContext 14.29

13.42 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

80% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

13.40 ShotsContext 11.80

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

38% On target shareContext 24%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

55% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.40 Shots allowedContext 9.20

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38

2.90 BlocksContext 3.14

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

71% Save rateContext 72%

59% PossessionIn forecast 60%

484 PassesContext 490

415 Accurate passesContext 417

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.78

9.70 FoulsContext 13.90

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km6,188 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel619 km1,238 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Mar	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,188 km	1,238 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 24J. Oosterwolde 18M. Müldür

3A. Brown 17N. Kanté 6M. Guendouzi 20A. Musaba

21Marco Asensio

9M. Aktürkoğlu 26S. Chérif

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 4R. van Drongelen 37Ľ. Šatka 55Y. Çift

10J. Ntcham 29A. Makoumbou 5C. Yüksel

21C. Holse 9Marius 2J. Mendes

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce-1.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Samsunspor+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.27points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-0
Scored: 2.18
Conceded: 0.91

Samsunspor · Away 1.42points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Fenerbahce	Samsunspor
Antalyaspor	D 2–2 AW 2–0 H	L 1–3 AL 1–2 H
Kasimpasa	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Trabzonspor	W 3–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
Genclerbirligi	W 3–1 HW 3–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Kocaelispor	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A
Goztepe	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	L 0–2 A
Alanyaspor	W 3–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Eyüpspor	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 H
Konyaspor	W 4–0 H	W 3–1 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Galatasaray	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 A
Rizespor	W 5–2 A	D 1–1 H
Kayserispor	W 4–2 H	W 3–1 A
Besiktas	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 4–0 A	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 AW 3–2 H
Points	53 of 69 · 2.30 per game	31 of 69 · 1.35 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Fenerbahce wins4 draws0 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 40%

5 Oct 2025Samsunspor0–0Fenerbahce
16 Mar 2025Fenerbahce0–0Samsunspor
20 Oct 2024Samsunspor2–2Fenerbahce
21 Jan 2024Fenerbahce1–1Samsunspor
21 Aug 2023Samsunspor0–2Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	2.25	1.04
Conceded per game	0.96	1.13
Match goals	3.21	2.17	2.78
Over 1.5	88%	67%
Over 2.5	58%	38%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	67%	54%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	8%	33%
Games	24	24

	Fenerbahce	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	2.80	1.90	2.78
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	51%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	6.14	5.26
Corners conceded	4.62	3.96
Match total	10.76	9.22	9.34
Over 8.5	71% 15/21	57% 13/23
Over 9.5	57% 12/21	39% 9/23
Over 10.5	48% 10/21	35% 8/23
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.96
Opponent cards	3.13	1.88
Match total	5.46	3.84	4.67
Over 3.5	75% 18/24	54% 13/24
Over 4.5	58% 14/24	33% 8/24

	Fenerbahce	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.33
Corners conceded	5.50	2.89
Match total	11.50	8.22	9.34
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.40
Opponent cards	2.60	1.80
Match total	5.30	3.20	4.67
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.35league 4.44

Red cards0.18league 0.21

Cards 5+35%league 45%

Fouls25.9league 26.0

Penalties0.47league 0.26

Home wins35%league 38%

Fenerbahce3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D21 Sep 25A · Kasimpasa1–11
W31 May 25H · Konyaspor2–14
D20 Apr 25H · Kayserispor3–31

Samsunspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Feb 26A · Fatih Karagümrük0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.