Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Aug 5 · 19:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,270 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Sturm Graz—%
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 166
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Sturm Graz
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
75
AttackIn forecast
32
53
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceSturm Graz
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
14.50
ShotsContext
18.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
28%
On target shareContext
41%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.50
56%
Box shareContext
78%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
—
OffsidesContext
—
8.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
5.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
86%
Save rateContext
90%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
599
PassesContext
246
538
Accurate passesContext
164
90%
Pass accuracyContext
67%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.42
15.00
FoulsContext
16.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.80
ShotsContext
17.60
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
39%
On target shareContext
29%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
57%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.80
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.00
BlocksContext
3.10
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
75%
Save rateContext
81%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
503
PassesContext
332
435
Accurate passesContext
251
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.80
FoulsContext
11.70
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,599 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sturm Graz
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,270 km3,232 km in 14d
Schedule load22%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Sturm Graz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,270 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,599 km | 3,232 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
24J. Oosterwolde
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
91N. Kanté
6M. Guendouzi
9M. Aktürkoğlu
10Marco Asensio
11M. Greenwood
94Talisca
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
53D. Khudyakov(G)
18E. Soglo
2J. Mitchell
5A. Vallci
28Jurgen Heil
19Simon Seidl
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
39Luca Weinhandl
43J. Hödl
20S. Jatta
17S. Włodarczyk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sturm Graz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Sturm Graz · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Fenerbahce | Sturm Graz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 10.00 | |
| Match total | 13.50 | 13.00 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.00 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Fenerbahce | Sturm Graz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.11 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 11.89 | 11.20 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.70 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 166 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.25
Red cards0.13league 0.23
Cards 5+38%league 42%
Fouls21.8league 25.2
Penalties0.22league 0.34
Home wins40%league 51%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Oct 24A · Twente1–15
Sturm GrazNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Sturm Graz1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
Sturm Graz9 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.