Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 14 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 34). Fenerbahce had 14 days of rest, Trabzonspor 13.9 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days14 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fenerbahce63%
Draw21%
Trabzonspor16%
Fenerbahce62%
Draw22%
Trabzonspor16%
Fenerbahce63%
Draw21%
Trabzonspor16%
Fenerbahce55%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor21%
Fenerbahce62%
Draw22%
Trabzonspor16%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Trabzonspor
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
75
AttackIn forecast
54
53
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceTrabzonspor
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
15.33
ShotsContext
12.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
24%
On target shareContext
23%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
59%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.67
Shots allowedContext
10.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.33
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
80%
Save rateContext
90%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
441
PassesContext
416
377
Accurate passesContext
354
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.33
FoulsContext
10.00
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.40
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
31%
On target shareContext
34%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
55%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.57
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.67
BlocksContext
2.88
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
69%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
419
PassesContext
450
351
Accurate passesContext
388
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.07
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.60
FoulsContext
12.00
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel904 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
18M. Müldür
7Fred
5İ. Yüksek
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
53S. Szymański
19Y. En-Nesyri
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
5O. Yokuşlu
15S. Savić
44A. Batagov
11O. Tufan
70K. Olaigbe
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
10E. Muçi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Trabzonspor · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Fenerbahce wins0 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 6 Apr 2025Fenerbahce4–1Trabzonspor
- 3 Nov 2024Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
- 17 Mar 2024Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
- 4 Nov 2023Fenerbahce2–3Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Fenerbahce | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.00 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.67 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 3.25 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Fenerbahce | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.40 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.70 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.25
Red cards0.14league 0.28
Cards 5+29%league 44%
Fouls22.7league 25.3
Penalties0.14league 0.28
Home wins57%league 36%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Eyüpspor2–12
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 May 25H · Samsunspor2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce3 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Trabzonspor4 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
