Ferencvarosi TC
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Aug 5 · 19:15
Groupama Aréna, Budapest
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel315 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Ferencvarosi TC—%
Draw—%
Gornik Zabrze—%
Weather (Budapest)
No weather data yet
RefereeJavier Alberola
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 74
Team strength
Ferencvarosi TC
Gornik Zabrze
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
61
AttackIn forecast
21
56
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGornik Zabrze
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Ferencvarosi TCGornik Zabrze
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
—
25%
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.25
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
13.70
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
47%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.83
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.80
BlocksContext
4.40
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
81%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
383
PassesContext
406
312
Accurate passesContext
336
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.50
FoulsContext
9.60
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,029 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Gornik Zabrze
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel315 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ferencvarosi TC |
Gornik Zabrze |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 30 Jul | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,029 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ferencvarosi TC
Confirmed XI
90D. Dibusz(G)
14A. Osváth
28T. Raemaekers
4M. Gómez
20Cadu
10J. Levi
36G. Kanichowsky
17M. Corbu
11B. Yusuf
75L. Joseph
16K. Zachariassen
Gornik Zabrze
Confirmed XI
1P. Schulze(G)
64E. Janža
20Josema Sánchez
26R. Janicki
61M. Sáček
82K. Urbański
66M. Dietz
18L. Sadílek
88T. Ismaheel
11E. Prekop
7Yvan Ikia Dimi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ferencvarosi TC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gornik Zabrze
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Ferencvarosi TC · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gornik Zabrze · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ferencvarosi TC | Gornik Zabrze | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 4 | 0 |
| Ferencvarosi TC | Gornik Zabrze | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ferencvarosi TC | Gornik Zabrze | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 11.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | — | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | — | |
| Match total | 3.25 | — | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | — | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | — | |
| Ferencvarosi TC | Gornik Zabrze | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.17 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.84 | 11.30 | 11.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 3.44
Red cards0.16league 0.19
Cards 5+26%league 34%
Fouls25.8league 28.0
Penalties0.27league 0.22
Home wins46%league 47%
Ferencvarosi TCNo previous matches with this referee.
Gornik ZabrzeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ferencvarosi TC4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Gornik ZabrzeFerencvarosi TC10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Gornik Zabrze10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.