UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Thu, Jul 30 · 19:30 Groupama Aréna, Budapest
Ferencvarosi TC 1st · 9 pts · 3 played
First leg2–1 2–2Full time
Twente 6th · 0 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,015 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Ferencvarosi TC—%
Draw—%
Twente—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Budapest)

No weather data yet

RefereeV. Kopiyevsky

Team strength

Ferencvarosi TCTwente
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
57 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
61 AttackIn forecast 41
56 DefenceIn forecast 49
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ferencvarosi TCTwente
2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext —
33% Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
1.33 Yellow cardsContext —
0.00 Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match · 3 and 0 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.44
80% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.14 ShotsContext 15.33
3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.11
31% On target shareContext 40%
8.14 Shots in the boxContext 10.89
65% Box shareContext 68%
9% ConversionContext 13%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.25
11.14 Shots allowedContext 12.33
4.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78
2.83 BlocksContext 3.88
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
66% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 53%
398 PassesContext 442
325 Accurate passesContext 355
82% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.97
13.71 FoulsContext 8.22
11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 8.89
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 0.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ferencvarosi TC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,029 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Twente
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,015 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ferencvarosi TC Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 23 Jul7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 23 Jul
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,015 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,029 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one69.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI
4-3-3
90D. Dibusz(G)
20Cadu 28T. Raemaekers 4M. Gómez 14A. Osváth
17M. Corbu 36G. Kanichowsky 88P. Rommens
47C. O'Dowda 75L. Joseph 16K. Zachariassen
Twente Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1L. Unnerstall(G)
29A. Adelgaard 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt 14K. Hlynsson 6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter 9W. Weghorst 11D. Rots

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ferencvarosi TC Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ferencvarosi TC · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
0.00
Twente · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Ferencvarosi TC wins0 draws0 Twente wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 23 Jul 2026Twente1–2Ferencvarosi TC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Ferencvarosi TCTwenteForecast
Scored per game 2.331.00
Conceded per game 0.672.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 67%100%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games31
Ferencvarosi TCTwenteForecast
Scored per game 1.501.90
Conceded per game 1.401.60
Match goals 2.903.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 20%40%
Both teams scored 50%80%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Ferencvarosi TCTwenteLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——11.50
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards1.330.00
Opponent cards1.330.00
Match total2.660.005.50
Over 3.533% 1/30% 0/1
Over 4.533% 1/30% 0/1
Ferencvarosi TCTwenteLeague
Corners
Corners won3.435.11
Corners conceded5.574.89
Match total9.0010.0011.50
Over 8.571% 5/767% 6/9
Over 9.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 10.514% 1/733% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.900.60
Opponent cards2.201.60
Match total4.102.205.50
Over 3.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ferencvarosi TC3 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Twente1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3 2 0-15
3 4 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 46-60
4 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
2 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 4 31-45
6 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.