Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar – 10 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 10 · 15:45 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 2nd · 61 pts · 32 played DDDWW

First leg3–3 1–1Full time

AZ Alkmaar 6th · 50 pts · 32 played LWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AZ Alkmaar. Feyenoord had 7.1 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7 and had to travel 81 km.

Away travel81 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Feyenoord46%

Draw25%

AZ Alkmaar29%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.27

Feyenoord48%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Feyenoord47%

Draw25%

AZ Alkmaar28%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.24

Feyenoord38%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar36%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.42

Feyenoord45%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.19

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal

Cards per match 2.6
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 53

Team strength

Feyenoord

AZ Alkmaar

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

76 AttackIn forecast 52

61 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

AZ Alkmaar

2.09 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.69

1.34 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.47

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

88% Scored inContext 88%

28% Clean sheetsContext 28%

16.63 ShotsContext 15.47

6.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.72

38% On target shareContext 37%

11.53 Shots in the boxContext 10.06

70% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.95 OffsidesContext 1.76

10.56 Shots allowedContext 11.94

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.16

2.81 BlocksContext 3.58

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

68% Save rateContext 69%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

431 PassesContext 447

357 Accurate passesContext 368

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.66 FoulsContext 9.91

11.41 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 1.84

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.30 ShotsContext 16.00

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 33%

11.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

70% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.78

10.30 Shots allowedContext 9.60

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.70 BlocksContext 3.30

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

69% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

400 PassesContext 443

324 Accurate passesContext 367

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.98

9.60 FoulsContext 10.30

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AZ Alkmaar

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel81 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	282 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

30M. Lotomba 4T. Watanabe 18G. Trauner 20M. Deijl

28O. Targhalline 24T. Kraaijeveld

15J. Bos 10L. Valente 23A. Hadj Moussa

9A. Ueda

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)

34M. de Wit 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

8J. Clasie 6P. Koopmeiners

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 10S. Mijnans 17I. Jensen

9T. Parrott

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord-0.7 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AZ Alkmaar+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.19points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 11-2-3
Scored: 2.38
Conceded: 1.38

AZ Alkmaar · Away 1.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-8
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 HL 3–4 A
Groningen	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A	L 0–3 AW 4–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 AL 2–4 H	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A
FC Volendam	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
Ajax	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
NAC Breda	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Twente	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Telstar	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H	L 0–2 AW 4–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 1–2 AL 1–5 H
Heracles	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A	W 4–0 HW 2–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Heerenveen	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	W 3–0 HL 1–3 A
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H
Points	60 of 93 · 1.94 per game	49 of 93 · 1.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Feyenoord wins1 draws0 AZ Alkmaar wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 0%

21 Sep 2025AZ Alkmaar3–3Feyenoord
5 Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar0–1Feyenoord
2 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–2AZ Alkmaar
4 Feb 2024AZ Alkmaar0–1Feyenoord
12 Nov 2023Feyenoord1–0AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	2.09	1.69
Conceded per game	1.34	1.47
Match goals	3.44	3.16	2.92
Over 1.5	84%	81%
Over 2.5	63%	66%	56%
Over 3.5	41%	44%
Both teams scored	63%	63%	59%
Clean sheets	28%	28%
Failed to score	13%	13%
Games	32	32

	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	2.60	2.80	2.92
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.80	5.72
Corners conceded	3.53	4.31
Match total	10.33	10.03	10.29
Over 8.5	67% 20/30	75% 24/32
Over 9.5	53% 16/30	44% 14/32
Over 10.5	40% 12/30	34% 11/32
Cards
Cards	1.69	1.88
Opponent cards	1.63	1.53
Match total	3.32	3.41	3.31
Over 3.5	44% 14/32	41% 13/32
Over 4.5	25% 8/32	22% 7/32

	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	6.70
Corners conceded	2.90	3.80
Match total	9.50	10.50	10.29
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.20
Opponent cards	2.30	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.20	3.31
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 53 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.47league 3.13

Red cards0.11league 0.18

Cards 5+21%league 26%

Fouls19.2league 21.2

Penalties0.21league 0.21

Home wins58%league 44%

Feyenoord6 with this referee

Record6-0-0 Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

W15 Feb 26H · GO Ahead Eagles1–01
W6 Dec 25H · PEC Zwolle6–11
W1 Nov 25H · FC Volendam3–10
W14 May 25H · Waalwijk2–00
W2 Apr 25H · Groningen4–10

AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

W12 Apr 26H · Heerenveen3–01
L21 Dec 25A · Fortuna Sittard3–40
W2 Feb 25A · Willem II2–00
W8 Dec 24H · Ajax2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.