Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 19). Feyenoord had 13.3 days of rest, Heerenveen 14.1 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days13.3 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Feyenoord74%
Draw16%
Heerenveen9%
Feyenoord73%
Draw17%
Heerenveen10%
Feyenoord74%
Draw16%
Heerenveen9%
Feyenoord67%
Draw19%
Heerenveen13%
Feyenoord73%
Draw17%
Heerenveen10%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 17
Team strength
Feyenoord
Heerenveen
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
76
AttackIn forecast
36
61
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordHeerenveen
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
0.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.70
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.00
ShotsContext
17.75
7.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
38%
On target shareContext
27%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
70%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
7.33
Shots allowedContext
8.25
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.33
BlocksContext
2.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
75%
Save rateContext
61%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
473
PassesContext
446
397
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.00
FoulsContext
10.50
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
14.10
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
38%
On target shareContext
30%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
71%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.90
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.60
BlocksContext
2.86
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
65%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
419
PassesContext
424
346
Accurate passesContext
343
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.60
FoulsContext
11.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
8Q. Timber
14S. Steijn
40L. Valente
16L. Sauer
9A. Ueda
23A. Hadj Moussa
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
17N. Hopland
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
7M. Rivera
6J. van Overeem
8L. Brouwers
20J. Trenskow
10R. Meerveld
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Heerenveen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Feyenoord wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 18 May 2025Heerenveen2–0Feyenoord
- 23 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–0Heerenveen
- 16 Sep 2023Feyenoord6–1Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 75% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 75% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 10.75 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 4.75 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Feyenoord | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.30 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.41league 3.46
Red cards0.18league 0.16
Cards 5+12%league 35%
Fouls20.9league 22.5
Penalties0.12league 0.16
Home wins47%league 51%
FeyenoordNo previous matches with this referee.
Heerenveen4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L14 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–10
- W19 Apr 25H · Almere City FC2–11
- W8 Dec 24A · Willem II2–12
- W31 Aug 24H · NAC Breda4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord3 games · scored 8 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Heerenveen4 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
4
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
