Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 21). Feyenoord had 6.3 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 8 and had to travel 128 km.
Away travel128 kmRest days6.3 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Feyenoord67%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle13%
Feyenoord66%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle13%
Feyenoord67%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle13%
Feyenoord60%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle18%
Feyenoord66%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle14%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 40
Team strength
Feyenoord
PEC Zwolle
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
76
AttackIn forecast
17
61
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordPEC Zwolle
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
79%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
18.00
ShotsContext
8.57
6.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.08
38%
On target shareContext
33%
12.57
Shots in the boxContext
5.14
73%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.50
Shots allowedContext
17.57
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.43
2.62
BlocksContext
4.29
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.36
67%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
441
PassesContext
353
370
Accurate passesContext
275
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.75
8.93
FoulsContext
10.14
9.93
Fouls sufferedContext
12.64
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.60
ShotsContext
8.80
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
39%
On target shareContext
34%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
67%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.30
Shots allowedContext
19.30
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.70
2.33
BlocksContext
4.90
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
62%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
444
PassesContext
339
375
Accurate passesContext
262
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.00
FoulsContext
9.60
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel128 km169 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 128 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 122 km | 169 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
30M. Lotomba
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
11Gonçalo Borges
8Q. Timber
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
6T. Gooijer
3O. Aertssen
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
7S. Shoretire
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
2.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-2
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.43
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 2.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Heracles | W 7–0 A | L 2–8 A |
| Utrecht | W 3–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Groningen | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 3–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Heerenveen | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 25 of 36 · 2.08 per game | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Feyenoord wins0 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game3.67 – 0.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 25 Apr 2025Feyenoord4–0PEC Zwolle
- 18 Aug 2024PEC Zwolle1–5Feyenoord
- 8 Oct 2023PEC Zwolle0–2Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.43 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 64% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Feyenoord | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 3.90 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.92 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.38 | 5.42 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.09 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.14 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 2.71 | 3.93 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 4/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 2/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Feyenoord | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.67 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.48league 3.36
Red cards0.10league 0.23
Cards 5+23%league 33%
Fouls19.3league 22.0
Penalties0.20league 0.28
Home wins55%league 48%
Feyenoord4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Nov 25H · FC Volendam3–10
- W14 May 25H · Waalwijk2–00
- W2 Apr 25H · Groningen4–10
- W10 Nov 24A · Almere City FC4–10
PEC Zwolle2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 25A · NAC Breda3–11
- W2 Sep 23A · Almere City FC2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord14 games · scored 35 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
9
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
PEC Zwolle13 games · scored 18 · conceded 28
4
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
12
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 24 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
8
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
9
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
