Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam – 18 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 18 · 15:45 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 2nd · 36 pts · 18 played WWLDD

First leg4–0 3–4Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 8th · 26 pts · 18 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were clear favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 21). Feyenoord had 7.2 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Feyenoord65%

Draw21%

Sparta Rotterdam15%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.94

Feyenoord63%

Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam15%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89

Feyenoord64%

Draw21%

Sparta Rotterdam15%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.92

Feyenoord57%

Draw23%

Sparta Rotterdam20%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.06

Feyenoord63%

Draw21%

Sparta Rotterdam15%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.91

Over 2.5 60% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 99

Team strength

Feyenoord

Sparta Rotterdam

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

76 AttackIn forecast 32

61 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Sparta Rotterdam

2.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.28 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

94% Scored inContext 72%

33% Clean sheetsContext 39%

17.33 ShotsContext 13.06

6.39 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.61

37% On target shareContext 35%

12.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

71% Box shareContext 68%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.58

10.94 Shots allowedContext 16.22

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.47

3.12 BlocksContext 4.28

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.47

71% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

441 PassesContext 380

369 Accurate passesContext 303

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.91

9.61 FoulsContext 8.17

10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 10.61

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

80% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.50 ShotsContext 13.70

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

33% On target shareContext 36%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

70% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.14 OffsidesContext 1.83

13.00 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

3.50 BlocksContext 3.70

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.78

71% Save rateContext 80%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

443 PassesContext 406

373 Accurate passesContext 329

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.10 FoulsContext 8.90

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km302 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	302 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 4T. Watanabe 21A. Ahmedhodžić 30M. Lotomba

40L. Valente 6I. Hwang

16L. Sauer 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa

17C. Tengstedt

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

10A. Santos 6J. Baas 8J. Kitolano

11S. Mito 9T. Lauritsen 7M. van Bergen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-2
Scored: 2.44
Conceded: 1.33

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-4
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–3 H
Twente	D 1–1 H	L 1–5 H
Ajax	L 0–2 A	D 3–3 H
PEC Zwolle	W 6–1 H	L 0–1 A
Telstar	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–4 H	L 1–3 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
FC Volendam	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 2–3 H	L 1–6 A
Heracles	W 7–0 A	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
Utrecht	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 H
Groningen	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 3–3 A	L 0–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
NAC Breda	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 H
Points	33 of 51 · 1.94 per game	26 of 51 · 1.53 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Feyenoord wins2 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game2.40 – 0.60 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 0%

31 Aug 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–4Feyenoord
8 Feb 2025Feyenoord3–0Sparta Rotterdam
25 Aug 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–1Feyenoord
11 Feb 2024Feyenoord2–0Sparta Rotterdam
20 Aug 2023Sparta Rotterdam2–2Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	2.44	1.11
Conceded per game	1.28	1.72
Match goals	3.72	2.83	3.09
Over 1.5	89%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	28%
Both teams scored	61%	33%	54%
Clean sheets	33%	39%
Failed to score	6%	28%
Games	18	18

	Feyenoord	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.90
Conceded per game	2.20	0.90
Match goals	4.00	1.80	3.09
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	20%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	20%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	7.06	4.56
Corners conceded	3.94	7.11
Match total	11.00	11.67	10.15
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	94% 17/18
Over 9.5	65% 11/17	78% 14/18
Over 10.5	53% 9/17	67% 12/18
Cards
Cards	1.44	1.78
Opponent cards	1.11	2.00
Match total	2.55	3.78	3.58
Over 3.5	22% 4/18	61% 11/18
Over 4.5	11% 2/18	39% 7/18

	Feyenoord	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.70
Corners conceded	4.30	7.20
Match total	10.70	12.90	10.15
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	2.00
Match total	2.90	4.00	3.58
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.32league 3.36

Red cards0.13league 0.21

Cards 5+26%league 32%

Fouls21.6league 21.7

Penalties0.30league 0.29

Home wins43%league 45%

Feyenoord11 with this referee

Record3-4-4 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

D21 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar3–33
L11 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–33
L2 Feb 25A · Ajax1–22
D18 Jan 25A · Willem II1–10
W14 Dec 24H · Heracles5–20

Sparta Rotterdam7 with this referee

Record1-1-5 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.1 Pens for · against0 · 3

L2 Nov 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–11
W2 Mar 25H · Willem II4–01
L9 Nov 24A · Groningen0–12
L5 Oct 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–22
L21 Jan 24H · GO Ahead Eagles0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.