Feyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were clear favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Feyenoord had 6.8 days of rest, Utrecht 7 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Feyenoord73%
Draw15%
Utrecht12%
Feyenoord58%
Draw23%
Utrecht19%
Feyenoord72%
Draw16%
Utrecht12%
Feyenoord65%
Draw18%
Utrecht17%
Feyenoord72%
Draw15%
Utrecht12%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 66
Team strength
Feyenoord
Utrecht
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
76
AttackIn forecast
32
61
DefenceIn forecast
31
71
Form indexContext
25
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FeyenoordUtrecht
3.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.17
2.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
22.00
ShotsContext
11.67
7.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
36%
On target shareContext
37%
14.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
68%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
17.83
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
2.60
BlocksContext
4.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
55%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
506
PassesContext
374
443
Accurate passesContext
293
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.22
Team ratingContext
6.52
8.33
FoulsContext
16.33
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
2.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
100%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.70
ShotsContext
14.80
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
37%
On target shareContext
35%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.22
68%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
2.89
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
61%
Save rateContext
60%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
451
PassesContext
395
385
Accurate passesContext
321
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.40
FoulsContext
13.70
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Feyenoord
WDWLW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,625 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 71 · 10 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Utrecht
LDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Feyenoord |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,625 km | 96 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.3 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol
6J. St. Juste
4T. Watanabe
26G. Read
28O. Targhalline
34C. Vanhoutte
8G. Zechiël
10L. Valente
19Nacho Ferri
23A. Hadj Moussa
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
34D. van den Berg
20D. de Wit
23N. Vesterlund
15A. Blake
9A. Stepanov
11Ángel Alarcón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Feyenoord+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Feyenoord · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Utrecht · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Feyenoord wins0 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 8 Feb 2026Utrecht0–1Feyenoord
- 5 Oct 2025Feyenoord3–2Utrecht
- 12 Jan 2025Feyenoord1–2Utrecht
- 27 Oct 2024Utrecht0–2Feyenoord
- 3 Sep 2023Utrecht1–5Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.33 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 3.17 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 5.00 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 9.80 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 1.84 | 3.17 | 2.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Feyenoord | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.22 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 2.63
Red cards0.15league 0.05
Cards 5+27%league 12%
Fouls22.1league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.20
Home wins44%league 27%
Feyenoord4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D16 Aug 26H · GO Ahead Eagles2–20
- W3 May 26A · Fortuna Sittard2–13
- L1 Mar 26A · Twente0–20
- L9 Nov 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21
Utrecht7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L9 Aug 26A · Groningen1–22
- W24 Aug 25H · Excelsior4–10
- D1 Feb 25A · PEC Zwolle3–30
- W3 Nov 24A · Sparta Rotterdam4–11
- W21 Sep 24H · Willem II3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Feyenoord6 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
1
0-15
4
16-30
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Utrecht6 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
7
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 26 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 20 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
9
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
