Fiorentina vs Napoli – 20 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 20 · 11:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 16th · 3 pts · 4 played LLLW

1–1Full time

Napoli 10th · 6 pts · 4 played WLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 42). Fiorentina had 8.7 days of rest, Napoli 6.8 and had to travel 409 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel409 kmRest days8.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Fiorentina32%

Draw24%

Napoli44%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.62

Fiorentina30%

Draw26%

Napoli44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

Fiorentina30%

Draw24%

Napoli46%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.63

Fiorentina25%

Draw23%

Napoli52%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.82

Fiorentina32%

Draw24%

Napoli44%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.61

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

28°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 47%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 86

Team strength

Fiorentina

Napoli

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

42 AttackIn forecast 61

34 DefenceIn forecast 70

21 Form indexContext 55

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Napoli

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.75 ShotsContext 14.25

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 28%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

60% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.25 OffsidesContext 3.50

11.75 Shots allowedContext 16.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.25 BlocksContext 5.67

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

50% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 48%

359 PassesContext 459

297 Accurate passesContext 399

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.58 Team ratingContext 6.81

11.00 FoulsContext 9.25

13.75 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

50% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

13.00 ShotsContext 13.30

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

32% On target shareContext 35%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

63% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 12%

1.44 OffsidesContext 2.80

14.00 Shots allowedContext 13.70

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.10 BlocksContext 4.38

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

69% Save rateContext 75%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

370 PassesContext 515

307 Accurate passesContext 456

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.40 FoulsContext 8.40

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LLLW

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km407 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.0 vs expected

W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts
L29 AugH · Frosinone0–32.0 xPts
L24 AugA · AS Roma0–40.8 xPts

Napoli WLLLW

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel409 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 55 · 6 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Arsenal0–10.7 xPts
L5 SepA · Inter2–30.8 xPts
L30 AugH · Como1–21.6 xPts
W22 AugA · Genoa2–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.7Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Sep	6.8Serie A 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	409 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	407 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	20.1	20.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 6L. Ranieri 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

14A. Atta 44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 32Mateo Pellegrino 30Franco Mastantuono

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

17M. Olivera 16Rafa Marín 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour

70N. Lang 11K. De Bruyne 21M. Politano

19R. Højlund

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+1.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Napoli-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.50

Napoli · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Fiorentina wins2 draws6 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.80 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%

31 Jan 2026Napoli2–1Fiorentina
13 Sep 2025Fiorentina1–3Napoli
9 Mar 2025Napoli2–1Fiorentina
4 Jan 2025Fiorentina0–3Napoli
17 May 2024Fiorentina2–2Napoli
8 Oct 2023Napoli1–3Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.50
Conceded per game	2.75	1.25
Match goals	4.00	2.75	2.95
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	4	4

	Fiorentina	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	0.90
Match goals	2.60	2.50	2.95
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.00
Corners conceded	3.50	7.33
Match total	8.00	11.33	9.50
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.00
Opponent cards	1.75	1.00
Match total	3.25	2.00	3.30
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4

	Fiorentina	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.11
Corners conceded	3.90	4.44
Match total	7.90	8.55	9.50
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.70
Match total	3.20	2.70	3.30
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.22league 3.22

Red cards0.19league 0.02

Cards 5+26%league 22%

Fouls24.4league 22.2

Penalties0.21league 0.11

Home wins28%league 40%

Fiorentina7 with this referee

Record4-3-0 Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 Jan 26A · Bologna2–10
D22 Nov 25H · Juventus1–13
W30 Mar 25H · Atalanta1–00
W6 Feb 25H · Inter3–01
D3 Sep 22H · Juventus1–11

Napoli13 with this referee

Record6-5-2 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

W24 Apr 26H · Cremonese4–00
W6 Apr 26H · AC Milan1–02
D11 Jan 26A · Inter2–22
D18 May 25A · Parma0–04
D1 Mar 25H · Inter1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.