Fiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Fiorentina had 5.7 days of rest, Sassuolo 8.8 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days5.7 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fiorentina49%
Draw27%
Sassuolo24%
Fiorentina53%
Draw25%
Sassuolo22%
Fiorentina49%
Draw27%
Sassuolo24%
Fiorentina41%
Draw28%
Sassuolo30%
Fiorentina50%
Draw25%
Sassuolo25%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Firenze)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 60
Team strength
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
42
AttackIn forecast
41
34
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FiorentinaSassuolo
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
76%
Scored inContext
70%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.76
ShotsContext
10.42
3.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
27%
On target shareContext
36%
8.06
Shots in the boxContext
6.85
62%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.03
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
3.30
BlocksContext
3.52
3.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.77
68%
Save rateContext
73%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
423
PassesContext
380
358
Accurate passesContext
313
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.97
FoulsContext
11.55
15.58
Fouls sufferedContext
12.55
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
9.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
39%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
65%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
11.90
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
71%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
422
PassesContext
357
354
Accurate passesContext
296
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.90
FoulsContext
10.20
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fiorentina
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fiorentina |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.7Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Apr | 8.8Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,373 km | 275 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
62Luís Balbo
6L. Ranieri
3D. Rugani
2Dodô
27C. Ndour
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
19M. Solomon
10A. Guðmundsson
17J. Harrison
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
13S. Turati(G)
23U. Garcia
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
7C. Volpato
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fiorentina-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Sassuolo+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fiorentina · Home
1.13points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-6
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Sassuolo · Away
1.19points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-7
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Inter | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Como | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Bologna | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Genoa | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 96 · 1.13 per game | 42 of 96 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Fiorentina wins1 draws3 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.57
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets0% · 14%
- 6 Dec 2025Sassuolo3–1Fiorentina
- 28 Apr 2024Fiorentina5–1Sassuolo
- 6 Jan 2024Sassuolo1–0Fiorentina
- 2 Jun 2023Sassuolo1–3Fiorentina
- 7 Jan 2023Fiorentina2–1Sassuolo
- 26 Feb 2022Sassuolo2–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fiorentina | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.58 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 58% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 55% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 30% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Fiorentina | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.90 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fiorentina | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 3.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 9.01 | 8.49 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 18/32 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 16/32 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 8/32 | 24% 8/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 4.33 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 24/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 21/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Fiorentina | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 10.10 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.40 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.71
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 35%
Fouls23.8league 24.8
Penalties0.32league 0.29
Home wins43%league 40%
Fiorentina8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L19 Oct 25A · AC Milan1–23
- W23 Apr 25A · Cagliari2–12
- W28 Feb 25H · Lecce1–03
- D19 Jan 25H · Torino1–13
- W6 Nov 22A · Sampdoria2–00
Sassuolo3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Feb 26H · Verona3–02
- L21 Sep 25A · Inter1–21
- L30 Dec 23A · AC Milan0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fiorentina32 games · scored 37 · conceded 43
3
7
0-15
7
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
10
9
46-60
7
7
61-75
6
10
76-90
Sassuolo32 games · scored 40 · conceded 42
7
9
0-15
3
8
16-30
6
4
31-45
9
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
