Fiorentina vs Torino – 5 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 20th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

1–2Full time

Torino 14th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Torino. Fiorentina had 6.9 days of rest, Torino 6.9 and had to travel 317 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel317 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fiorentina46%

Draw24%

Torino29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.25

Fiorentina50%

Draw25%

Torino25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Fiorentina47%

Draw24%

Torino29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.22

Fiorentina39%

Draw25%

Torino36%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.40

Fiorentina46%

Draw24%

Torino30%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.27

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

33°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 41%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 118

Team strength

Fiorentina

Torino

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

42 AttackIn forecast 39

34 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Torino

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

2.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

-1.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

0% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.00 ShotsContext 9.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

24% On target shareContext 28%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

45% Box shareContext 84%

0% ConversionContext 11%

1.00 OffsidesContext —

14.50 Shots allowedContext 19.00

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.00 BlocksContext 6.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

50% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

379 PassesContext 458

315 Accurate passesContext 396

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.40 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.50 FoulsContext 9.50

18.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

50% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.90 ShotsContext 10.60

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.56

28% On target shareContext 22%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

61% Box shareContext 61%

6% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.43

14.30 Shots allowedContext 14.90

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

3.30 BlocksContext 4.60

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

75% Save rateContext 66%

47% PossessionIn forecast 46%

392 PassesContext 394

328 Accurate passesContext 326

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.90 FoulsContext 11.50

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km468 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 26 · 0 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L29 AugH · Frosinone0–32.0 xPts
L24 AugA · AS Roma0–40.8 xPts

Torino LL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel317 km471 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 27 · 0 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected

L29 AugA · Sassuolo1–21.1 xPts
L23 AugH · AC Milan1–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug	6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	468 km	471 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

4-3-3

43David de Gea(G)

21Víctor Valdepeñas 33Viery 3R. Drăgușin 17João Mário

4M. Brescianini 42Christ Inao Oulaï 44N. Fagioli

25A. Njie 32Mateo Pellegrino 30Franco Mastantuono

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

20Lucas Perri(G)

15P. Comuzzo 23Saúl Coco 5E. Cömert

8R. Mandragora

77Alessio Cacciamani 28K. Fitz-Jim 66G. Gineitis 29N. Fortini

10N. Vlašić 19C. Adams

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina-0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Torino+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Torino · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Fiorentina wins5 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.00 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 40%

7 Feb 2026Fiorentina2–2Torino
31 Aug 2025Torino0–0Fiorentina
19 Jan 2025Fiorentina1–1Torino
3 Nov 2024Torino0–1Fiorentina
2 Mar 2024Torino0–0Fiorentina
29 Dec 2023Fiorentina1–0Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	3.50	2.00
Match goals	3.50	3.00	2.87
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	2	2

	Fiorentina	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.20
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	1.90	2.60	2.87
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	2.50
Corners conceded	3.50	4.00
Match total	9.00	6.50	8.33
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	0.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	5.00	2.50	3.19
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Fiorentina	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	3.33
Corners conceded	3.90	4.33
Match total	8.30	7.66	8.33
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	4.20	3.00	3.19
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 118 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 3.19

Red cards0.30league 0.00

Cards 5+51%league 14%

Fouls25.0league 22.6

Penalties0.19league 0.00

Home wins36%league 38%

Fiorentina5 with this referee

Record2-2-1 Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W17 May 26A · Juventus2–03
D11 Jan 26H · AC Milan1–14
D10 Mar 24H · AS Roma2–22
W30 Oct 22A · Spezia2–13
L24 Apr 22A · Salernitana1–21

Torino5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D31 Mar 25A · Lazio1–14
L6 Apr 24A · Empoli2–31
L7 Oct 23A · Juventus0–21
W9 Nov 22H · Sampdoria2–01
D18 Feb 22A · Juventus1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.