UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 19:00 Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd
FK Crvena Zvezda 30th · 0 pts · 1 played
First leg0–1 0–2Full time
Hapoel Beer Sheva 8th · 6 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,948 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FK Crvena Zvezda—%
Draw—%
Hapoel Beer Sheva—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Beograd)

No weather data yet

RefereeGlenn Nyberg
  • Cards per match 3.3
  • Penalties per match 0.26
  • Matches 43

Team strength

FK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer Sheva
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 28
40 AttackIn forecast 26
39 DefenceIn forecast 31
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer Sheva
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
0.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
67% Scored inContext 100%
67% Clean sheetsContext 67%
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.39 xGVia Att/Def —
0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext —
80% Scored inContext 80%
70% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.71 ShotsContext —
3.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
27% On target shareContext 33%
7.86 Shots in the boxContext —
69% Box shareContext —
7% ConversionContext 11%
2.29 OffsidesContext —
10.14 Shots allowedContext —
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
3.67 BlocksContext —
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext —
78% Save rateContext 33%
48% PossessionIn forecast —
435 PassesContext —
350 Accurate passesContext —
80% Pass accuracyContext —
6.97 Team ratingContext —
13.86 FoulsContext —
13.86 Fouls sufferedContext —
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,896 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,948 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FK Crvena Zvezda Hapoel Beer Sheva
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,948 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,896 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one98

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan 25S. Eraković 32D. Luckassen 66Y. Seol
33R. Krunić 21T. Elšnik
17Bruno Duarte 22V. Kostov 14O. Bukari
9J. Enem
Hapoel Beer Sheva Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1O. Marciano(G)
5Pedro Amador 12I. Rotman 4M. Vítor 2G. Mizrahi
28N. Yehoshua 25Lucas Ventura 7E. Peretz
9Z. Ahmed 66I. Zlatanović 20J. East

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FK Crvena Zvezda Absences are shown before kick-off
Hapoel Beer Sheva Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FK Crvena Zvezda · Home No home games yet this season.
Hapoel Beer Sheva · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 FK Crvena Zvezda wins0 draws1 Hapoel Beer Sheva wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 4 Aug 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva1–0FK Crvena Zvezda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaForecast
Scored per game 0.001.33
Conceded per game 1.000.67
Match goals 1.002.00
Over 1.5 0%67%
Over 2.5 0%33%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%33%
Clean sheets 0%67%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games13
FK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaForecast
Scored per game 0.701.33
Conceded per game 0.800.67
Match goals 1.502.00
Over 1.5 40%67%
Over 2.5 10%33%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 20%33%
Clean sheets 50%67%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games103

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——10.12
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards2.003.33
Opponent cards2.003.33
Match total4.006.664.68
Over 3.533% 1/367% 2/3
Over 4.533% 1/367% 2/3
FK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.863.00
Corners conceded4.573.00
Match total10.436.0010.12
Over 8.571% 5/70% 0/1
Over 9.571% 5/70% 0/1
Over 10.557% 4/70% 0/1
Cards
Cards2.604.20
Opponent cards1.702.70
Match total4.306.904.68
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.540% 4/1080% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Glenn Nyberg 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.21league 4.27
Red cards0.09league 0.25
Cards 5+28%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 25.3
Penalties0.26league 0.31
Home wins47%league 52%
FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FK Crvena Zvezda3 games · scored 9 · conceded 1
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
3 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
5 46-60
1 61-75
4 2 76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva9 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.