Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 18). Absences weigh more on Ajax. Fortuna Sittard had 7 days of rest, Ajax 4.2 and had to travel 167 km.
Away travel167 kmRest days7 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fortuna Sittard28%
Draw26%
Ajax47%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw26%
Ajax47%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw26%
Ajax48%
Fortuna Sittard21%
Draw24%
Ajax54%
Fortuna Sittard28%
Draw27%
Ajax46%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 46
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
19
AttackIn forecast
66
19
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardAjax
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
86%
Scored inContext
93%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.86
ShotsContext
14.21
4.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
42%
8.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.64
64%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.08
OffsidesContext
1.77
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.21
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.23
3.92
BlocksContext
4.07
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.77
73%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
375
PassesContext
529
291
Accurate passesContext
458
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.43
FoulsContext
11.00
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
12.93
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.80
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
39%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
62%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.38
13.80
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.89
BlocksContext
5.10
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
76%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
360
PassesContext
510
275
Accurate passesContext
439
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.00
FoulsContext
9.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel167 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 4.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 167 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
4S. Adewoye
44Iván Márquez
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
7K. Peterson
80R. Fosso
20É. Michut
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
30A. Bouwman
6Y. Regeer
10O. Gloukh
4K. Itakura
18D. Klaassen
11M. Godts
25W. Weghorst
43Rayane Bounida
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Ajax-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
2.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
Ajax · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–5 A | D 2–2 A |
| Groningen | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Excelsior | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | W 3–2 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 15 of 36 · 1.25 per game | 20 of 36 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws2 Ajax wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 100%
- 9 Feb 2025Fortuna Sittard0–2Ajax
- 18 Sep 2024Ajax5–0Fortuna Sittard
- 3 Sep 2023Fortuna Sittard0–0Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.14 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 7% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.85 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.62 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 10.47 | 10.36 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 85% 11/13 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.08 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 6/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 8.78 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.33
Red cards0.26league 0.22
Cards 5+33%league 32%
Fouls22.8league 22.0
Penalties0.17league 0.28
Home wins46%league 48%
Fortuna Sittard1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Sep 23H · Ajax0–03
Ajax3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25H · PEC Zwolle3–12
- W5 Nov 23H · Heerenveen4–11
- D3 Sep 23A · Fortuna Sittard0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard14 games · scored 20 · conceded 22
4
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Ajax14 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
6
5
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
6
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
