Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were slight favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Fortuna Sittard had 6.1 days of rest, Ajax 7 and had to travel 167 km.
Away travel167 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fortuna Sittard22%
Draw22%
Ajax56%
Fortuna Sittard26%
Draw25%
Ajax49%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw22%
Ajax55%
Fortuna Sittard16%
Draw19%
Ajax64%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw22%
Ajax55%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 58
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
19
AttackIn forecast
66
19
DefenceIn forecast
55
68
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardAjax
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
2.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+1.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.20
ShotsContext
20.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
54%
On target shareContext
31%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.75
59%
Box shareContext
61%
24%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
19.60
Shots allowedContext
11.25
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
5.40
BlocksContext
2.50
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
72%
Save rateContext
79%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
283
PassesContext
526
207
Accurate passesContext
461
73%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.80
FoulsContext
9.25
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
2.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.10
ShotsContext
16.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
42%
On target shareContext
34%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
56%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.10
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.50
BlocksContext
3.60
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
81%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
317
PassesContext
512
239
Accurate passesContext
441
75%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.60
FoulsContext
8.80
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
DWLWW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 68 · 10 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · +5.1 vs expected
Ajax
WDWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel167 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 7 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 167 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 38 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
3R. Guth
23P. Brittijn
12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand
20É. Michut
52M. Ihattaren
10O. Romeny
25L. Zeefuik
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1M. ter Stegen(G)
12Caio Henrique
15Y. Baas
6J. Kehrer
3A. Gaaei
8J. Brandt
4S. Amrabat
24J. Mokio
20O. Edvardsen
99T. Arokodare
23S. Berghuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Ajax+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Ajax · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins1 draws4 Ajax wins
Goals per game0.40 – 2.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 14 Feb 2026Ajax4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 6 Dec 2025Fortuna Sittard1–3Ajax
- 9 Feb 2025Fortuna Sittard0–2Ajax
- 18 Sep 2024Ajax5–0Fortuna Sittard
- 3 Sep 2023Fortuna Sittard0–0Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.67 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 7.75 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.50 | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.43 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.86 | 10.11 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 2.64
Red cards0.14league 0.06
Cards 5+28%league 13%
Fouls19.6league 20.8
Penalties0.26league 0.26
Home wins43%league 26%
Fortuna Sittard6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D12 Apr 26H · NAC Breda1–12
- L17 Jan 26H · PSV Eindhoven1–21
- W8 Nov 25H · Heerenveen2–02
- L31 Aug 24H · NEC Nijmegen0–31
- D24 Jan 24A · Almere City FC0–01
Ajax7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L10 May 26H · Utrecht1–22
- D21 Feb 26H · NEC Nijmegen1–11
- W11 Jan 26A · Telstar3–21
- L18 Oct 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–24
- D14 May 25A · Groningen2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard5 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Ajax4 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
