Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. Fortuna Sittard had 6.8 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 6.9 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar54%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar48%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar54%
Fortuna Sittard18%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar61%
Fortuna Sittard24%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar53%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 107
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
19
AttackIn forecast
52
19
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardAZ Alkmaar
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
2.39
2.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+1.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
18.00
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
52%
On target shareContext
36%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
57%
Box shareContext
65%
20%
ConversionContext
17%
3.50
OffsidesContext
—
20.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
6.00
BlocksContext
2.50
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
77%
Save rateContext
67%
30%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
269
PassesContext
444
185
Accurate passesContext
370
69%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.22
8.00
FoulsContext
11.50
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
18.50
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
15.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
38%
On target shareContext
35%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
60%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.20
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.11
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
73%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
323
PassesContext
451
237
Accurate passesContext
378
74%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.10
FoulsContext
10.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
DW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 4 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 113 km | 131 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
15N. de Groot
28J. Hubner
6S. van Ottele
2S. Wylin
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
22S. ’t Zand
9A. Descotte
25L. Zeefuik
10O. Romeny
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez
4L. Schouten
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners
21D. Kwakman
11Ro-Zangelo Daal
10K. Smit
7Weslley Patati
9M. Meerdink
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws4 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 4 Apr 2026AZ Alkmaar2–0Fortuna Sittard
- 21 Dec 2025Fortuna Sittard4–3AZ Alkmaar
- 23 Feb 2025AZ Alkmaar1–0Fortuna Sittard
- 6 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard1–0AZ Alkmaar
- 17 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard1–2AZ Alkmaar
- 1 Oct 2023AZ Alkmaar4–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 14.00 | 10.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.50 | 2.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 11.40 | 10.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 2.22
Red cards0.11league 0.06
Cards 5+42%league 11%
Fouls23.0league 20.8
Penalties0.28league 0.00
Home wins49%league 33%
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W27 Apr 25H · Willem II1–00
- L23 Nov 24H · Twente1–21
- L11 Feb 24A · Utrecht0–40
- L1 Oct 23A · AZ Alkmaar0–43
AZ Alkmaar7 with this referee
Record3-0-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L31 Jan 26H · NEC Nijmegen1–31
- L9 Nov 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–52
- W5 Oct 25H · Telstar2–13
- W10 Aug 25H · Groningen4–12
- L13 Apr 25A · Heracles0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
AZ Alkmaar2 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
8
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
