Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard had 7 days of rest, Cambuur 8 and had to travel 245 km.
Away travel245 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fortuna Sittard47%
Draw25%
Cambuur28%
Fortuna Sittard40%
Draw26%
Cambuur34%
Fortuna Sittard47%
Draw25%
Cambuur28%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Draw26%
Cambuur35%
Fortuna Sittard48%
Draw24%
Cambuur28%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 38
Team strength
Fortuna Sittard
Cambuur
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
19
AttackIn forecast
22
19
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardCambuur
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
—
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Red cardsContext
—
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
—
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.40
ShotsContext
19.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
25%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
61%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
2%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.70
Shots allowedContext
11.33
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.60
BlocksContext
2.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
64%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
332
PassesContext
479
247
Accurate passesContext
390
74%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.94
8.90
FoulsContext
13.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
D
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 1 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
- D8 AugA · PSV Eindhoven2–20.3 xPts
Cambuur
L
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel245 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
- L7 AugH · Excelsior0–41.7 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Cambuur |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 245 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 113 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
28J. Hubner
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
8J. Dahlhaus
5Y. Oukili
23P. Brittijn
2S. Wylin
10O. Romeny
52M. Ihattaren
25L. Zeefuik
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
23L. Jetten
6J. Amofa
4I. Baouf
28M. Costarelli
8N. Souren
9S. Vink
10Rafik El Arguioui
11I. Hamache
7S. Bouhoudane
29I. Henstra
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cambuur
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cambuur+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
No home games yet this season.
Cambuur · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 8.00 | |
| Match total | — | 13.00 | 11.08 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 13.00 | 11.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.29league 2.54
Red cards0.29league 0.08
Cards 5+16%league 15%
Fouls18.4league 22.2
Penalties0.29league 0.00
Home wins39%league 31%
Fortuna Sittard5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W20 Feb 26H · Excelsior2–11
- L17 Aug 25A · NAC Breda1–23
- W28 Feb 25A · Waalwijk2–14
- L18 Sep 24A · Ajax0–52
- L8 Oct 23H · Twente0–33
CambuurNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cambuur1 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
Cambuur3 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
