Fortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fortuna Sittard
12th · 36 pts · 31 played
WLLDL
First leg0–2
1–2Full time
Feyenoord
2nd · 58 pts · 31 played
WDDDW
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard had 7.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 7.9 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw23%
Feyenoord55%
Fortuna Sittard24%
Draw26%
Feyenoord51%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw23%
Feyenoord53%
Fortuna Sittard17%
Draw20%
Feyenoord63%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Draw23%
Feyenoord54%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sittard)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 59
Team strength
Fortuna SittardFeyenoord
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
19
AttackIn forecast
76
19
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fortuna SittardFeyenoord
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
87%
Scored inContext
87%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.61
ShotsContext
16.55
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.23
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.03
Shots in the boxContext
11.48
63%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.26
Shots allowedContext
10.68
5.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.48
3.90
BlocksContext
2.83
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
357
PassesContext
433
273
Accurate passesContext
359
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.03
FoulsContext
9.58
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
15.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
67%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.60
BlocksContext
2.60
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
341
PassesContext
409
258
Accurate passesContext
332
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.50
FoulsContext
9.80
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km436 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel141 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fortuna Sittard |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 436 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
44Iván Márquez
21N. Kasanwirjo
23P. Brittijn
6S. van Ottele
18D. Limnios
70L. Duijvestijn
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
4T. Watanabe
18G. Trauner
20M. Deijl
28O. Targhalline
24T. Kraaijeveld
44Tobias van den Elshout
10L. Valente
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fortuna Sittard-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Feyenoord+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fortuna Sittard · Home
1.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-5
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.67
Feyenoord · Away
1.53points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-4
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| NAC Breda | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–2 AW 4–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Telstar | L 1–4 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 AL 2–4 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Ajax | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 3–4 HW 4–0 A |
| Heracles | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 4–2 HW 7–0 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | W 6–1 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Points | 36 of 90 · 1.20 per game | 55 of 90 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Fortuna Sittard wins2 draws2 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game0.25 – 1.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 75%
- 17 Sep 2025Feyenoord2–0Fortuna Sittard
- 12 Apr 2025Fortuna Sittard0–2Feyenoord
- 30 Nov 2024Feyenoord1–1Fortuna Sittard
- 13 Aug 2023Feyenoord0–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.84 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 61% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 61% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.40 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 6.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.64 | 3.62 | |
| Match total | 11.35 | 10.38 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 22/28 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 18/28 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 16/28 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.32 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 3.20 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 35% 11/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 9/31 | 23% 7/31 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.50 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 4.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.15league 3.13
Red cards0.14league 0.17
Cards 5+25%league 25%
Fouls22.0league 21.2
Penalties0.24league 0.22
Home wins47%league 44%
Fortuna Sittard5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L8 Mar 26H · Telstar1–41
- W8 Mar 25H · Heracles1–00
- W16 Aug 24H · Almere City FC3–02
- W24 Feb 24A · Waalwijk1–00
- W10 Dec 23H · Waalwijk1–02
Feyenoord2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L1 Mar 26A · Twente0–20
- L9 Nov 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fortuna Sittard31 games · scored 45 · conceded 57
10
11
0-15
4
11
16-30
10
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
5
7
61-75
10
12
76-90
Feyenoord31 games · scored 65 · conceded 42
5
6
0-15
14
7
16-30
13
6
31-45
13
7
46-60
7
3
61-75
13
13
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
2
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
